The Future of Schools…and The Schools of the Future For titles and subtitles each word capitalized except articles and prepositions and conjunctions for four or fewer letters. Title and subtitle text appears black on clear/white backgrounds. Patrick F. Bassett, NAIS President bassett@nais.org

Future of Schools/Schools of the Future Highlights from… Trendbook 2011/2012 Top Ten Trends 2011 Top Ten Trends 2012 Schools of the Future The 5 C’s + 1

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012 Top 5 % Incomes?

Trendbook 2011/2012 The Forever Recession?

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012 Sticky Messages? 70 % of character -building parents already in our schools Sticky Messages?

Trendbook 2011/2012 The plurality of recipients of financial aid are the upper middle class Sophie’s Choice? Our profile vs. higher ed’s financial aid profile.

Trendbook 2011/2012

Trendbook 2011/2012

Future of Schools/Schools of the Future Highlights from… Trendbook 2011/2012 Top Ten Trends 2011 Top Ten Trends 2012 Schools of the Future

Ten Trends – 2010-11 Trend 3: A Consensus Is Emerging on What Great Teaching Looks Like and the Danger of Its Disappearing in American Schools: Great teachers ( “teach kids” not subjects) are the hedgehog of independent schools. Meta-analysis of what distinguishes great teachers is that they are smart, and they love kids—they have both high IQ (academic smarts) and high EQ (emotional intelligence). Problem 1: The demographics of the teacher pool are alarming. Problem 2: Generally poor students choose to be education majors coming from the least selective colleges and universities and have the lowest grades and SAT scores. High-performing college grads don’t choose teaching (vs. high-performing countries). Problem 3: Next generation great teaching will be blended, high-tech and high-touch, not an easy combination to retrofit on current faculty. Problem 4: Movement in American education in general in the wrong directions—towards standardization, not creativity. Problem 5: Good and bad teachers fairly equally distributed throughout the public school system, affluent and poor districts. Problem 6: PFB’s extrapolation of Pink’s concepts in Drive: “Too much autonomy given, too little mastery expected”: Professional development over-weighted to serve individuals more so than schools. Silver Lining: Great teaching the staple of independent school business: We know where to find and train good teachers. (And so does Teach for America.

Toxicity for Kids from the Culture Is Growing Parents have most profound impact on morals. Mixed signals from parents: spectrum from “I want my child to be happy” (Anthony Campolo) to Black Swan / Tiger Mom expectations of “perfection.” Weissbourd’s research: Teens’ perception of what they believe to be the most important value for them in their parents’ mind: For you to be happy Achieving a high level of income Having a high status job Being a good person who cares about others Gaining entrance into a selective college 2/3rds public & private school kids thought #1 over #4. ½ of high income private school kids thought #5 over #4. Weissbourd’s comment on academic “pressure”: 30-40% of Harvard’s undergrads on anti-depressants.

Future of Schools/Schools of the Future Highlights from… Trendbook 2011/2012 Top Ten Trends 2011 Top Ten Trends 2012 Schools of the Future

Trend #3: Disruptions in Higher Ed Will Create New Expectations (Source: Chronicle’s College2020 Report, June 2009) The traditional model of college is changing: proliferation of for-profits; hybrid class schedules with night and weekend meetings; online learning. Graduation rates down while debt and default rates up: One-half graduate within six years; student loan debt is at an all-time high; loan default rates have risen sharply consigning a growing number of students to years of financial misery. (Debt to Degree: A New Way of Measuring College Success – Education Sector, 2011) Students’ convenience is the future: classes online; study part time; courses from multiple universities; jumping in and out of colleges. Acute pressure on traditional colleges to adapt (that have difficulty adapting): The nimble models, for-profit and community colleges and online universities, have growing enrollments. (See also Colleges in Crisis: Disruptive change comes to American higher education, by Clayton M. Christensen and Michael B. Horn, Harvard Magazine July-August 2011)

Trend #3 Disruptions in Higher Ed Will Create New Expectations (Source: Chronicle’s College2020 Report, June 2009) Students now in elementary school are going to expect more: especially more connectivity and creativity. Just after 2020, minority students will outnumber whites: many being “first gen” students. Beyond the elite private colleges and flagship public universities, competition for students will increase: choices based on price, convenience, and the perceived strengths of the institutions. Value proposition of college education is challenged: Bureau of Labor Statistics – only 39 percent of the jobs in the 10 fastest-growing occupations will require a college degree. If traditional colleges cannot keep costs affordable, other college models will take their place. Implications for Independent Schools: Our college-prep value proposition increases as higher ed’s is challenged.

Future of Schools/Schools of the Future Highlights from… Trendbook 2011/2012 Top Ten Trends 2011 Top Ten Trends 2012 Schools of the Future

Are We Ready for the Big Shifts in Education. (cf Are We Ready for the Big Shifts in Education? (cf. MacArthur Foundation, 21st. C. Learning) The Big Shifts Knowing……………. Doing Teacher-centered…… Student-centered The Individual………. The Team Consumption of Info…Construction of Meaning Schools………………..Networks (online peers & experts) Single Sourcing………..Crowd Sourcing High Stakes Testing……High Value Demonstrations

“So What’s it Gonna Be, Eh?” The End! For titles and subtitles each word capitalized except articles and prepositions and conjunctions for four or fewer letters. Title and subtitle text appears black on clear/white backgrounds.

PLCs & Crowdsourcing Lessons & Curriculum

Return Othello – Orson Wells (1952) Othello – Laurence Olivier (1965) Othello – Laurence Fishbourne (1995) Othello – Cheers version (1983) Return

Run ------------------------- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xL2PutgTRI

Run Return

Experiential Ed: 21st C. Skills & Values Demonstrations of Learning- The 5 C’s.

Rio Grande School (NM)

Lamplighter School (TX) Egg Business Run Clip

NAIS’s Challenge 20/20: High Noon Sharing our planet: Issues involving the “global common” Global warming Biodiversity and ecosystem losses Fisheries depletion Deforestation Water deficits Maritime safety and pollution Sharing our humanity: Issues requiring a global commitment & covenant Massive step-up in the fight against poverty Peacekeeping, conflict prevention, combating terrorism Education for all Global Infectious Diseases Digital divide Natural disaster prevention and mitigation Sharing our rulebook: Issues needing a global regulatory approach Reinventing taxation for the 21st century Biotechnology rules Global financial architecture Illegal drugs Trade, investment, and competition rules Intellectual property rights E-commerce rules International labor and migration rules.

20/20 Fay School Entrepreneurship: Global Problem: Water Deficits Global Solution: WaterWalker Fay School (MA) 8th graders

Challenge 20/20: Montessori School of Denver Return

Creativity, Robotics, Teaming and STEM Falmouth Academy’s Submersible Robot Return

Expeditionary Leadership Training Upper School “Borders” Project – Watershed School, CO NOLS-based Leadership Basics: Taking Care of… Yourself… Your Stuff… Your Responsibilities to the Team In the context of real-world project-based learning and problem-solving Measured by CWRA critical-thinking assessment. Results: Outperformed 99% of college freshmen Return

Grant Wood’s Victorian Survival Smithsonian Podcast interpretation by Katy Waldman, Holton Arms School Demonstration of Learning

Crowdsourcing Meets Gaming Gaming as an amazing new therapy for kids with autism: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCWYFo7HesA Average young person today will spend 10,000 hours with online gaming (same amount of time in school from grades 5 – 12). See www.worldwithouttoil.com Return

Top 5% Incomes

Top 5% Incomes

Top 5% Incomes Return PFB: The “X-Factor”: increasing market share. What are your three scenarios? Return

NAIS Parent Motivation Survey – 2011 (High Income Families, Actively Searching) Parents Who Push: Seek challenging schools for their kid they consider very smart and “gifted” Messages about test scores & college placement: “An environment where your child is free to be challenged by teachers who are free to teach.” Success-Driven Parents: Seek schools that will help their kids get into top tier colleges as a step to a successful life Messages about quality and diversity of student body: “Excellence, not standardization, is the standard.”

NAIS Parent Motivation Survey – 2011 (High Income Families, Actively Searching) Special Kids Parents: Seek a school that can meet their child’s unique learning or behavior or personality needs. Messages about high quality teachers and high academic standards to help their child reach his or her potential: “You expect success. We make it happen.” Character-Building Parents: Seek a school that emphasizes strong moral and character values, good citizenship, and high academic standards: Messages about “the second curriculum”: “Sometimes an education is about more than just knowing the right answer. It’s about knowing what’s right.”

NAIS Parent Motivation Survey – 2011 (High Income Families, Actively Searching) Public School Proponents: Seek the best public school because they believe those schools can provide all their kids need. Messages: Don’t bother with this group – Unlikely to win them over. Other Sticky Messages? “Can you afford not to afford an independent school education?” “We know your kid. The colleges know us.” Return

Demonstrations of Learning: “What you do, not what you know, the ultimate test of education.” ~PFB Tweet Conduct a fluent conversation in a foreign language about of piece of writing in that language. (Stanford University requirement) Write a cogent and persuasive opinion piece on a matter of public importance. Declaim with passion and from memory a passage that is meaningful, of one’s own or from the culture’s literature or history. Demonstrate a commitment to creating a more sustainable and global future with means that are scalable Invent a machine or program a robot capable of performing a difficult physical task.

Demonstrations of Learning Exercise leadership in arena which you have passion and expertise. Using statistics, assess if a statement by a public figure is demonstrably true. Assess media coverage of a global event from various cultural/national perspectives. (“Arab Spring” vs. 6th grade US history unit on “causes of the revolution”) Describe a breakthrough for a project-based team on which you participated in which you contributed to overcoming a human-created obstacle. Produce or perform or stage or interpret a work of art. Return

Ten (more) Trends for School Leaders to Ponder (see Top Ten Trends 2010-11 PPT for First Ten) Boards Become Focused on the Strategic: NAIS’s Trendbook 2011-12 Disruptions in K-12 Education Will Provide New Challenges Disruptions in Higher Ed Will Produce New Expectations The Future of Mobile is the Future of Everything Market Segmentation as the New Marketing Imperative Cosmopolitanism Emerging as the “Sixth Competency” Schools of the Future Hyper-Parenting Exerting a Heavy Toll on Kids Beyond the 3 R’s of Recruitment, Reward, & Retention: Managing Talent a Priority The Profession will be Professionalized Schools will be more Flexible, Accommodating, and Innovative Return

Cannon School Mobile App

The Forever Recession Seth Godin’s Blog: The Forever Recession (and the Coming Revolution) Cyclical recessions vs. forever recessions: the “race to the bottom” to return industrial factories to the U.S. will inevitably fail because someone elsewhere will always be able to produce goods cheaper. The coming revolution will be Internet-based: entrepreneurs who will network, market, create to produce value. Tom Friedman Oct 21, 2011 Op Ed “One Country – Two Revolutions” : The coming revolution here now, in Silicon Valley. The cloud & mobile computing making everyone a potential Mark Zuckerberg.