Hypothesis Testing a Claim on a Population Proportion (p)…and a 4 – step plan for Hypothesis Testing Question: Is a flu vaccine working? (data sheet) (aside)

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Presentation transcript:

Hypothesis Testing a Claim on a Population Proportion (p)…and a 4 – step plan for Hypothesis Testing Question: Is a flu vaccine working? (data sheet) (aside) Step 11: the future?

(If the vaccine is ineffective)

(If the vaccine is effective)

We say the vaccine is working (“Reject H O ”) We say the vaccine is not working (“Fail to Reject H O ”)

P(we say the vaccine is working and we’re wrong) = 3.2% (in our sample) P(we say the vaccine is working and we’re right) = ?

P(we say the vaccine isn’t working and we’re right) = 96.8% (in our sample) P(we say the vaccine isn’t working and we’re wrong) = 1 - ?

P(we say the vaccine is working and we’re wrong) (AKA Type 1 error)…P = 5% P(we say the vaccine isn’t working and we’re right) (good!) P(we say the vaccine isn’t working and we’re wrong) (AKA Type 2 error) P(we say the vaccine is working and we’re right) (good!)