Responding to the Unexpected Yigal Arens Paul Rosenbloom Information Sciences Institute University of Southern California

2/27/022 Unexpected Events, Examples Major terrorist attacks Major natural disasters (earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, …) While generally predictable, precise location and circumstances radically affect extent of damage and recovery efforts But also less life-threatening events E.g., cyber attacks

2/27/023 The Nature of Events and Organizational Responses Severity Frequency Routine 0 Planned Contingencies Real Problem Not cost-effective to plan Hard even to identify specific events Wing it

2/27/024 Typical Characteristics of Unexpected Events Difficulty obtaining, and uncertainty about information. Few trusted sources. Uncertainty regarding near-term future developments. Absence of, and difficulty obtaining personnel, expertise, equipment, etc. Absence of clear plans and difficulty planning given the fluid situation. Collaboration required among unfamiliar orgs. Difficulty maintaining communication.

2/27/025 Responding to Unexpected Events Detailed planning may be impractical But The right policies The right infrastructure The right support Will help

2/27/026 Elements of the Solution (All listed in their extreme form) 1.Policy, Regulation and Jurisdiction 2.Encyclopedic knowledge 3.Unlimited computation and storage 4.Eyes and hands everywhere 5.Virtual organizations 6.Security 7.Integration and transfer

2/27/027 Elements of the Solution: 1. Policy, Regulation, Jurisdiction A legal framework for emergency collaboration and information sharing and integration Flexible agency policies Shared ontologies and standards Guarantees for citizen privacy and civil rights

2/27/028 Elements of the Solution: 2. Encyclopedic knowledge An all-encompassing knowledge base with the ability to find answers The ability to provide needed information and instruction automatically, as circumstances require

2/27/029 Provide Human Performance Support Develop capability to recognize relationship between tasks and available information Identify relevant information Route information to humans Monitor human performance & info availability Alert when actions conflict with individual goals Alert when actions conflict with known information Alert when potential developments have big impact

2/27/0210 Elements of the Solution: 3. Unlimited Computation A network of: All available computational resources All available data storage facilities All available data Support for discovery and use of any combination of the above, as needed, transparently

2/27/0211 Basically, Computational Grid Controlled sharing of distributed resources Access to computers, software, data, … Security policy enforcement Computationally enhanced problem solving Enhanced decision making Faster, smarter agents Access to best platforms for the problem Resource discovery, on-demand allocation, distributed policy enforcement, access to large- scale data repositories

2/27/0212 Elements of the Solution: 4. Eyes & Hands Everywhere Networks of sensors and effectors From simple actuators to autonomous robots From simple embedded sensors to robot- mounted Instantly deployable Untethered Self-configuring

2/27/0213 Elements of the Solution: 5. Virtual Organizations Collaborative autonomous intelligent agents Active support for organizations that: Unite humans, software and hardware Possibly geographically dispersed Support flexible, resilient and coordinated efforts Reconfigure based on unfolding events

2/27/0214 VO: Agent Teams/Team Services Develop software agents that automate routine tasks within organization E.g., obtaining, monitoring, distributing info Ensure coherent human/agent interaction Agent proxies assist in coordinating agents Adaptive user interfaces Monitor task progress within the organization Monitor individual and group tasks & goals Assign resources efficiently (physical and human) Suggest/execute corrective actions when goals are endangered

2/27/0215 Benefits of the VO Approach Team members participate more effectively Less need to supervise others’ actions (human, software, or device) Humans learn and adapt more quickly Just-in-time training, assessment feedback Resources used more efficiently Computational resources available when needed, misuses avoided Complex missions can be better handled

2/27/0216 Elements of the Solution: 6. Security Secure from eavesdropping and sabotage: Data Computers Networks Communications Wired and wireless

2/27/0217 Elements of the Solution: 7. Integration and Transfer Mechanisms for: Supporting targeted research Legal, economic evaluation and study Policy study Simulation of technology and processes Physical testing Technology integration subject to legal, economic, policy constraints Industry liaison

2/27/0218 Recap: Elements of the Solution 1.Policy, Regulation and Jurisdiction 2.Encyclopedic knowledge 3.Unlimited computation and storage 4.Eyes and hands everywhere 5.Virtual organizations 6.Security 7.Integration and transfer

2/27/0219 This Workshop Proposed by USC/ISI based on these ideas Wide backing at NSF: By the CISE, SBE, ENG Directorates If successful, will define a research agenda for responding to unexpected events If accepted, may form the basis for funding a research program Workshop structure: Investigate cases and find general problems Inspect problem within disciplines and propose research Identify the process and resources that will lead to solutions

2/27/0220 Workshop Program