The Global Effort to Understand Carbon Dioxide James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere NOAA Deputy Administrator.

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Presentation transcript:

The Global Effort to Understand Carbon Dioxide James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere NOAA Deputy Administrator Director: US Climate Change Science Program September 26, 2005

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 2 Outline Carbon Dioxide Variability Role of Atmosphere in Carbon Cycle Role of Oceans in Carbon Cycle Role of Terrestrial Processes in Carbon Cycle Future Directions in Assessing the Carbon Cycle

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 3 Long Term Record of Atmospheric CO 2 Increase in CO2 in the past 100 years is unprecedented in ~450ky Modern record shows increasing NH source throughout century Interhemispheric difference has been increasing Seasonal Cycle is largest in NH

Atmospheric CO 2

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 5 Atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa Observatory

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 6 Radiative Forcing by Long- Lived Atmospheric Gases

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 7 Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) Monitoring Sites for CO 2 Monitoring Stations for Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 8 Courtesy of World Data Centre For Greenhouse Gases

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 9 Data-Driven Interpretive Analysis: Identifying Global Sources and Sinks

Oceanic Processes

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 11 Column inventory of anthropogenic CO 2 in the ocean (mol m 2 ). High inventories are associated with deep water formation in the North Atlantic and intermediate and mode water formation between 30° and 50°S. Total inventory of shaded regions is 106 ± 17 Pg C. (From Sabine et al. 2004) Ocean Carbon Inventory

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 12 Sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide

Terrestrial Processes

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 14 Terrestrial biosphere takes up approximately three billion tons of human emitted carbon dioxide per year Carbon Dioxide Partitioning

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 15 Average concentrations of CO 2 in marine surface air indicate that the continent of North America could be a net sink of CO 2. Or is this a more “local” effect that is caused mainly by sources/sinks in the ocean basins? parts per million CO 2 in Air: North Atlantic minus North Pacific

Future Directions

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 17 US Effort— Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Guides and directs federal research efforts Answers emerging climate science questions addresses key climate research challenges Involves 13 Federal Agencies/Departments Overseen by Ministerial/Cabinet-level officials Operates on a ~$2B annual expenditure

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 18 CCSP Strategic Plan ( Chapter 3: Atmospheric Composition Chapter 7: Carbon Cycle Chapter 12: Observing and Monitoring the Climate System S&A Product 2.2: Will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American carbon budget and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 19 International Efforts— GEOSS Leadership in development and implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) GCOS is a major contribution to GEOSS for climate observations GEOSS supports integrated global observations of CO 2 & related gases Climate Technical Reference Document (USG document)

Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO 20 Charles David Keeling 1928—2005