Economic Outlook Douglas, AZ

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Lower levels of production  Job losses/rising unemployment  Less income  Lower levels of sales  Stock market declines  Loss of consumer and investor confidence  Financial crisis

Cochise College Center for Economic Research PeakTroughDuration (Months) February 1945October November 1948October July 1953May August 1957April April 1960February December 1969November November 1973March January 1980July July 1981November July 1990March March 2001November December 2007?18 (and counting)

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recovery likely in late 2009  Positive signs in recent weeks  Financial crisis will slow recovery and growth  Economic stimulus will have impact

How Cochise County and Douglas are impacted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

 Cochise County retail market in recession since November 2007  2009 (Jan-Mar): -9.4%  2008: -6.5%  2007: -1.3%  Douglas Retail Sales Tax Revenue  2009 (Jan-Mar): -2.0%  2008: 6.1%  2007: 2.2%

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County restaurant & bar sales in recession since October 2007  2009 (Jan-Mar): -2.9%  2008: 0.2%  2007: 0.1%  Douglas restaurant & bar sales in recession since at least July 2007  2009 (Jan-Mar): 0.4%  2008: -7.7%  2007: -2.9%

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  County retail sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in late 2009  City-level retail sales tax revenue helped along by tax rate increase  Stronger Peso may help  Restaurant & bar sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in mid-2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

* Jan-Apr only; seasonally adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending Apr 2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending Apr 2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Expect continued job losses & rising unemployment  Local area will fare better than, and begin to recover before, state and nation  ADOC data for Douglas will continue to overstate unemployment

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

Single Family Residential Building Permits

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009, 1 st Qtr: 66 (-45.5%)  2008: 404 (-14.4%)  2007: 472 (-47.6%)  2006: 900 (-18.8%)  Douglas  2009, Jan-Apr: 3 (-72.7%)  2008: 15 (-60.5%)  2007: 38 (-42.4%)  2006: 66 (-18.5%)

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009, Jan-Apr: 306 (-10.3%)  2008: 1,120 (-20.0%)  2007: 1,400 (-10.6%)  2006: 1,566 (-20.7%)  Douglas  2009, Jan-Apr: 25 (-21.9%)  2008: 102 (-3.8%)  2007: 106 (10.4%)  2006: 96 (5.5%)

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

* Jan-Apr only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County  2009, Jan-Apr: $175,970 (-6.9%)  2008: $184,000 (-5.6%)  2007: $195,000 (1.3%)  2006: $192,569 (10.7%)  2005: $173,900 (24.3%)  2004: $ 139,900 Douglas  2009, Jan-Apr: $90,000 (4.0%)  2008: $89,750 (-0.3%)  2007: $90,000 (-1.1%)  2006: $91,000 (35.8%)  2005: $67,000 (21.8%)  2004: $55,000

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

 New residential construction likely at or near bottom (county & city)  Existing home sales approaching bottom  Home prices should continue to hold or decline modestly  Commercial construction has remained relatively strong, but no new projects

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Most of the recession is probably over  There have been some signs that we’re at the bottom  The economic stimulus package will have an impact on the economy  Employment probably won’t improve until late 2009 or early 2010