Current and Potential Thesis Topics: - Forecasting of tropical cyclone formation and intensity - Predictability associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones - General predictability characteristics associated with increased spread in ensemble forecasts Application to operational products that are derived from NWP output Quantifying the utility in a probabilistic forecast based on ensemble characteristics. - Analysis of the variability in global-scale, slowly-varying circulations with respect to various forcing mechanisms and the impact on synoptic-scale circulations. circulation regimes teleconnections - Definition of a model to define an optimal decision process for preparing for tropical cyclone impacts using imperfect forecasts.

Operational Interface: Based on MySQL database run in a LINUX environment Database queries defined with a PHP interface via web-based input Two components: 1: Model output for daily monitoring of forecasts of current tropical vortices 2: Calculate and examine overall model error statistics Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensity

Hurricane Dennis: NOGAPS vorticity Statistical examinations of operational forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and life cycle Multivariate approaches to post-processing model output Discriminant Analysis for identification of developers and non- developers Logistic regression approach Basin dependencies Consensus forecasting of tropical cyclone formation Consensus forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity Data: Several years of WPAC and ATL tropical cyclone forecasts Areas of Concentration: Tropical, Weather Analysis and Forecasting, General Meteorology DoD Relevance: Increased accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts.

Ex-TY David GMS IR 1232 UTC Extratropical Transition: Results in a fast-moving, rapidly- developing,extratropical Cyclone that often results in cold-season-like Conditions throughout the midlatitudes during the normally “quiet” warm season. Issues: Timing of the interactions between the decaying tropical cyclone and the midlatitude circulation into which it is moving. Downstream impact The timing is related to predictability associated with ET events. Reduced predictability is not just an issue near the ET event, but extends far downstream.

The Downstream Influences of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones Patrick Harr Naval Postgraduate School GFS 500 hPa Ensembles +108 h VT 1200 UTC 20 Sep UTC 16 Sep 2003 GFS Ensembles +00 Hurricane Isabel Acknowledgment: Office of Naval Research, Marine Meteorology Program

TY Nabi TY Saola Impacts on Numerical Model Performance

Goals: Examine the relationships between ET and the decrease in downstream predictability Examine the variability associated with the impacts of a poleward-moving tropical cyclone on the midlatitude circulation Timing Midlatitude basic state Tropical cyclone characteristics convection frontogenesis Tools Model output Satellite data Areas of Concentration: Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Tropical, General Meteorology, NWP

Large-scale circulations and intraseasonal variability: Interannual changes and their impact on the synoptic scale There are large-scale, slowly varying circulations that Have pronounced impacts on seasonal, and synoptic-scale circulations. These circulations also vary by season, year, ENSO mode, others? TCs? monsoon breaks Active monsoons Wheeler (2000)

Goals: Examine some of the mechanisms that might influence the interannual variability and Its impact on the synoptic scale. ENSO has been examined somewhat, others? Prime candidates are the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO has been linked to global-scale variations in various circulations (jet streams, storm tracks), And extreme weather episodes. The AAO has not been examined as extensively As the AO. Since the AAO signal is largest during Northern Summer, it might have the most Impact on the summer MJO DATA: AO,AAO indices, NCEP Reanalysis data Techniques: statistical techniques such as Regression of intraseasonal fields on the AAO Index. Areas of Concentration: Climatology, Tropical, Weather Analysis and Forecasting, General Meteorology Wallace and Thompson 2002

Requirements for Assessing Forecast Value as Related to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Forecasting with Eva Regnier, DRMI, NPS. with Eva Regnier, DRMI, NPS. Costs ($) probability Costs ($) probability C1 C2 C1 > C2 Greater forecast uncertainty: Higher Costs Smaller forecast uncertainty: Lower Costs

GOALS: Devise a framework in which the process that leads to a “protect” vs “no protect” decision must be made when there is uncertainty in the variables upon which the decision must be based. -define uncertainty in tropical cyclone track forecasts -define the value of tropical cyclone track forecasts -related to a climatological probability of a tropical cyclone strike -define the utility of a forecast to the decision maker - utility will be based on the relative value of the assets to be protected vs being lost. -link the framework to a financial model that defines impacts to base assets (storing aircraft, sorting ships, changing personnel schedules) -apply to a “conceptual” strike at a DoD installation on the east coast of North America Data: Climatological tropical cyclone data base (HURDAT), forecast tracks from several operational models, financial data regarding base impacts due to severe weather. Areas of Concentration: Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Tropical, General Meteorology. DoD Relevance: Force protection, optimal use of resources.