©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования The methodology of Input-Output tables creation and new opportunities for economic analysis in Russia ©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования Москва 2013 ВВП

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 2 I-O system of calculations in IEF RAS Estimation of potential economy growth Mid- and long term forecasting of Russian economy Regional forecasts Sectors estimations Labor and capital productivity estimations Influence of the large investment projects on Russian economy Transport and logistics solutions Energy consumption forecasts Ecological problems

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 3 Development of I-O tables in Russia. What's next? Advantages of input-output approach for analysis and forecasting are obvious. However, its possibilities are underutilized. For full realization of its potential input-output methodology requires further improvement and expansion of the functional content of related tables. First of all, it is about creating additional input-output tables (so- called satellite accounts), which should be developed along with the traditional input-output tables such as: trade, taxation and transport margins matrixes, as well as the matrix of imported products.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 4 Capital flows I-O InvestmentFixed capital Capacities Consistent data on the structure of production, capital investment and capacities will significantly improve understanding and forecasting of the economy potential with the dynamic characteristics of capital`s efficiency.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 5 Research and development I-OR&D R&DR&D Integration of data on intermediate costs and research and development expenditures allows us to assess requirements and measures of Science and Technology Policy.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 6 Labor costs I-OLC EMPEMP Analysis of labor intensity in different sectors and estimation of employment. Together with matrices of capital flows and the R&D, labor costs matrix allow a new quality assessment of long-term labor and capital restrictions.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 7 Energy and environment I-O EN_CON ENERGY ECO Data on the energy usage in technological processes allow us to accurately assess the essential characteristics of energy efficiency, and total energy consumption (by type). In addition, it forms the basis for an adequate analysis of environmental burden and emissions level depending on the used technologies and the structure of the economy.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 8 Transportation I-OТRM Auto Rail Other The split of the transport margins matrix by type of transportation takes into account the competition between them.

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования 9 Regions Creation of integrated “Input-Output" tables by region (Federal District) will allow to analyze and forecast the mutual influence of the regional economies, model interregional flows. I-O R1 R2 R3 R1 R2R3 VA FDFD