Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) Summary of SOARS Objectives Determine the Space Weather needs of Aviation industry Illustrate what.

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Presentation transcript:

Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) Summary of SOARS Objectives Determine the Space Weather needs of Aviation industry Illustrate what a Space Weather service would look like

Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) Summary of User Needs Service that is fully integrated with existing meteorological services Prior to flight: Provision of alert sufficiently in advance to be used (2+ hours) Modification to flight plans consistent with current changes  Only certain changes are practical and cost effective En-Route: Alerts that are reliable and meaningful Modification to flight plans that are meaningful  ability to divert on oceanic routes can be limited  exteremely difficult for mass exodus from the skies

Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) Summary of User Needs WarningMonitorAwarenessExisting Services GPS availability and accuracy Advisory (nearcast) Critical at landing & take-off CLS Quickmap (EGNOS, WAAS used to improve system) HF Communications availability Required (2-3 hrs) Long-term prediction of frequency Radiation: Human Health Required (2-3 hrs) Modelling (badges?) NOAA/SEC Seivert, CARI, etc. Radiation: Avionics NoFailure Analysis

Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) User Satisfaction Accurate forecasting of events could save money Need alert sufficiently in advance to be used (2-3 hours)  Planned changes less costly than those that are unplanned  Changes on shorter timescale can be expensive – Diversions can cost several $10K Some responses to events limited by ATC practicalities Evaluation currently by discussion with key users Airlines, ATC…

Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) Sustainability Service needs to be implemented as service within existing terrestrial weather services Dissemination of information would be through them  Ensures folded into "standard" forecasts/warnings Minimizes infrastructure costs - extra 0.5 FTE? Income Small charge to the airline(?) or by Government

Space weather Operational Airline Risks Service (SOARS) Prospects for Improving of the Service SOARS is only demonstrating what a capability would look like