Adaptation to CC in African Forests UNDP Accra

Forest Model Climate Outcome Emission Scenario Timber Response Carbon Response Economic Outcome Ecosystem Model

Predicts boundaries of biomes (grassland, forest, savannah, desert) Predicts fire Predicts NPP Predicts carbon storage Predicts how all of the above factors shift with climate change scenario

Timber Model Volume Age

Shape of Volume Function Almost all life forms are S shaped Implies percentage growth rate falls over time (with age) Average growth rises over time to maximum and then falls

Percentage growth % Growth Age Interest rate

Economic Model of Timber Maximize present value of timber, W W=P*V(A,T)exp(-r*A)-C/(1-exp(-rA)) Optimal age A, maximizes W, and depends on temperature, T, and C is cost of plantation

Climate Change Effects Climate change will move boundaries of forest (suitable land) Climate change will alter NPP- growth of trees Climate change will alter fire frequency

Adaptation Harvest trees early if vulnerable to increased chance of fire or if slow growth Plant new tree species if will do better during lifetime of tree Plant only in land suitable for trees (adapt to changing boundaries of biome) More (less) intensity (fertilizer other inputs) if more (less) productive

Suppose CC Reduces Growth % Growth Age Interest rate Original New

Including Carbon Storage Carbon is captured in body and roots of tree Trees take carbon out of atmosphere Trees help mitigate greenhouse gas problem Carbon is proportional to volume

Impact of including carbon If farmers are given an incentive to store carbon, they will include this incentive into their harvest and planting decision Carbon payments make forests more profitable (expand forest area) and make longer rotation ages more profitable

Examine case study Loblolly pine Examine timber alone Add carbon benefit Introduce CC on timber Introduce CC on timber plus carbon Assume P=$.15/bdft, C=100, R=.04 Assume carbon price=$5/ton/yr