1 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Project Performance & Risk Management Aesook Byon, Deputy Project Director NSLS-II Project Advisory Committee Meeting December 10 – 11, 2009

2 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Outline Baseline Cost, Schedule & Funding Profile Near Term Planning 2009 Progress since CD-3 Approval Cost & Schedule Performance Contingency Risks & EAC Look Ahead Contingency Spent Plan → Steve’s Talk Conclusions

3 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Project Funding Full funding provided in FY09 Stimulus bill provided $150M additional funding (ARRA fund) in April ‘09 TPC remains same ($912M) but profile changed FY10 budget includes $141M as planned → Eliminated future funding profile related risks OLD NEW

4 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Funding and Obligations – Aug 2008

5 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Funding and Obligations – Apr 2009

6 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Funding and Cost Profile ($M) Aggressive management was required especially for FY09 and FY10 Burdened & Escalated (* Assumes each year spending be at the level to meet 95% probability) Eliminated funding profile related risks. Emphasis: Safety & Schedule!!

7 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Near Term Planning – summer ‘09 Detail Plan as far out in time as possible (not just FY10) Our best knowledge to complete the project ($, duration, links) All omissions & errors corrected Schedule accelerated Ring Building, LOB, Booster, scrf cavity, Insertion Devices Technically limited schedule rather than funding limited Critical path, schedule float, & spending profile updated Separated out material procurements and contracted work Actual contract schedules can be easily incorporated For more accurate EVMS tracking Resource load activities for accurate time-phasing of the plan Define detailed activities in short duration 1-2 months for EV.

8 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Schedule Float & Critical Path Critical Path until Sep 2009 Ring Building /Booster  Storage Ring Commissioning –Ring Building design and procurement: Completed ahead of schedule –Ring Building Construction and Booster Design & Procurement until February 2012 –Booster installation and commissioning until September 2013 –Storage ring commissioning from October 2013 until project completion Early Project Completion, June days “built-in” schedule float prior to early completion date: mostly due to limited funding profile in pre-ARRA CD-4, Start of Operations, June months after the early project completion date

9 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Critical Path – June 2009 Schedule float

10 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Updated Schedule Critical Path Ring Building /Booster  Storage Ring Commissioning –Ring Building Construction and Booster Design & Procurement until February 2012 –Booster installation and commissioning until September 2013 –Storage ring commissioning from October 2013 until project completion Booster no longer on Critical Path (~30 days of float from critical path) Early Project Completion, June 2014 (Lv 1 Milestone) Embedded schedule float all pushed out to after early project completion Projected early completion day is now Feb 2014 However, kept the Level-1 milestone date and built-in schedule float CD-4, Start of Operations, June months after the projected early completion date April

11 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Critical Path - Oct 2009 No longer on Critical Path Schedule float moved to end

12 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Schedule

13 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Cost Profile FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14 September Current Baseline changes More demands on available fund in FY10 & FY11 But profile still manageable

14 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Procurement Performance Award Date Cost Description BaselineActualEstimatedActual CommissioningAug 08Oct 08$830K$301K Site prepNov 08Nov 08$657K$501K APS WeldingJan 09Feb 09$1.7M$1.7M Ring BuildingFeb 09Feb 09$167M$173M 8 Unit SubstationApr 09Apr 09$3.0M$3.2M Switch GearMay 09Apr 09$445K$342K TransformersMay 09May 09$1.1M$0.7M Substation ExpJul 09Jul 09$1.8M$1.1M Chilled Water PlantMay 09Jul 09$8.4M$8.3M Chilled Water PipingJun 09Aug 09$1.0M$1.4M MagnetsAug 09Oct 09$18M$17.4M Total$203.9M$207.9M (102%) Total w/o Ring Building$ 36.9M$ 34.9M ( 95%) Upcoming major items: LINAC ($9.4M), Booster ($14.7M), LOBs ($40~80M) Excellent Performance Records so far

15 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Cost Baseline WBS CD-2 (Nov ‘07) CD-3 (Oct ‘08) June '09 Lehman Review Current Baseline (Oct ‘09) % increase since CD-2 Baseline 1.01 Project Management % 1.02 R&D and Conceptual Design % 1.03 Accelerator Systems % 1.04 Experimental Facilities % 1.05 Conventional Facilities % 1.06 Pre-Operations % Grand Totals: % Contingency utilization is $38.5M over 48 months (~$800K/month)

16 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Major Change Requests DateAreaDescription($M) 3/08CFDWiden Ring Building6.4 9/08ASDASD labor correction4.7 4/09CFDRing Building contract award5.7 4/09CFDA&E design & Title-III service1.7 4/09PSDAdditional labor & space charge1.9 4/09ASDRF BPM Electronics0.7 4/09ASDBooster RF Cavity Procurement0.5 9/09ASDSR Stainless Steel Vacuum Chambers1.2 9/09ASDRedesigned injector system transport line1.7 9/09PSDAdditional labor & space charge2.2 10/09ASDMagnet Supports Assembly Facility0.4 11/09ASDNear Term Planning Update7.8 11/09CFDLOB A&E design cost increase1.9 Contingency spent frugally & wisely

17 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Contingency Tracking To-Date Contingency as a % of Remaining Work

18 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk Management Steps Identify potential vulnerabilities/risks Determine their likelihood of occurring Assess their impact on the project technical, cost, and schedule baselines Determine activities that would reduce/mitigate the risk Consolidated risk entries to manageable numbers Execute a plan to accomplish these risk-reducing activities Risk reporting/tracking

19 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk Management Steps Bottom up Risk Analysis produced 407 Risk Register Entries Mixture of risks (can be mitigated) and uncertainties (things beyond our control) Repetition and redundancy (e.g. higher than usual inflation and exchange rate, out-year funding uncertainties, challenges in staffing) Tightened and Reduced Risk Register Entries Separated out cost uncertainties including out-year funding, inflation, exchange rate Removed risks of others not performing, e.g., someone else delivers late or doesn’t meet spec” Eliminated weak statements, e.g., “design carefully,” “work carefully,” “pay attention” Categories: risks (& single vendor) uncertainties exchange rate, material cost motherhood statement, wish list, error by others retired, redundant

20 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Bottom Up Risk Analysis – Oct 2007

21 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Composition of Bottom Up Risk Entries Risks (& single vendor) % Uncertainties 11629% Exchange rate, material cost % Motherhood statement, wish list, & error by others % Retired, redundant % Tightened to 46 Risk Register Entries in summer of 2008 Have been tracked and updated

22 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk Update Risk RatingAug 2008Apr 2009Nov 2009 High663 Medium7910 Low Retired29 Promoted (Low to H/M)44 Demoted (H/M to Low)45 New11

23 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk Categorization Matrix (Risk Rating) Consequence Category Definition Cost : Impact on project contingency Schedule : Impact on project schedule Technical : Impact on performance Marginal (M) ≤ $1MNone Minor degradation, Performance falls below upper end of goal; CD-4 can still be met Significant (S) > $1M, but ≤ $5M Impacts Level 0, 1, or 2 milestones defined in PEP Moderate performance shortfall, but workarounds available; Performance falls below mid-range goal Critical (C) > $5M Impacts early finish milestones CD-4 will not be met (essential performance parameter not met) Likelihood CategoryDefinition Very Likely (V) Risk is likely to occur with a probability ≥ 90% Likely (L) Risk is likely to occur with a probability ≥ 50% and < 90% Unlikely (U) There is < 50% chance that this event will occur

24 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk CFD-02 Title Ring Building contract Risk ID CFD-02 WBS Number WBS description Ring Building Contract Record DateRetired Feb 18, 2009 Description Condition: Bid prices for the conventional facilities construction exceed estimate beyond anticipated contingency. Initial estimate inaccurate or market forces change rapidly. Certain construction commodities may become scarce or much more expensive due to competing demand possibly increasing cost and schedule. Consequence: Requires scope reduction or use of contingency. Probability Unlikely Impact Critical Impact TypeCost $20M~$80M Risk Rating High First Indicator Cost estimate update based on Architect-Engineering firm’s report on the 30% design package Was the single biggest cost risk for project

25 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk CFD-02 - continue Mitigation Approaches 1.Use early procurements and use of commodity price protection clauses where warranted. 2.Ensure accurate estimate and reasonable escalation rates. 3.Improve estimate accuracy by seeking independent estimate and interaction with contractors. 4.Perform market analysis to assess escalation. 5.Perform a value engineering study and identify cost saving alternatives. 6.Conduct an independent technical review of the 100% design submittal. Date Started Nov 2007 Date to Complete Apr 2009 Owner title CFD Director Owner name M. Fallier Current Status04/20/08 : Estimate updated based on comprehensive review of 30% design package 06/04/08 : Estimate updated based on comprehensive review of 50% design package 07/15/08 : Estimate updated based on comprehensive review of 80% design package, evaluating validity of escalation rates for estimate and feasibility of escalation protection clauses in RFP. 09/05/08 : Completed CRDR of 100% design package and communicated comments to A/E for incorporation in design. 01/23/09: Received 5 competitive and responsive proposals. Selected proposal is comparable to baseline estimate. This risk can be retired upon contract award. 02/18/09: Contract was awarded and the risk is retired.

26 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk CFD-01 Title Changes in requirements for conventional facilities Risk ID CFD-01 WBS Number WBS description Requirements for conventional facilities Record Date Sep 25, 2009 Description Condition: Changes in requirements for the conventional facilities due to uncertainties in accelerator or beamline design Consequence: Changes in baseline design of the conventional facilities will result in cost increases and/or schedule delay. Probability Likely Impact Significant Impact TypeCost ~$2M Estimate for the cost impact is based on previous experience. Risk Rating Medium First Indicator Internal or external design review identifies potential design changes required to meet the functional specifications followed by a discussion on Project Change Request to be submitted. Mitigation Approaches (1) Ensure active interface management. (2) Conduct comprehensive reviews of design package. Used to be >$16M in early 2008

27 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk CFD-01 - continue Date Started Nov 2007 Date to Complete Sep 2010 Owner title CFD Director Owner name M. Fallier Current Status02/20/08 : Conducted comprehensive review of 30% design package 03/06/08 : BCP 08_012 was approved to increase in the radial distance from the storage ring ratchet wall to the walkway by 10 feet resulted in increase of the cost baseline by $6.43M. 05/21/08 : Conducted comprehensive review of 50% design package 06/26/08 : Conducted comprehensive review of 80% design package. Rating changed from High to Medium. 07/15/08 : Participated in ASD and XFD interface management meetings 09/05/08 : Conducted comprehensive review of 100% design package - CRDR agreed ASD and XFD design is sufficiently advanced to allow CF construction to begin but noted risk of changes still exist and impacts, once under construction, are greater. Therefore, the Date to Complete changed from September 2008 to September /26/08 : Technical sign-off from each division acknowledging CF design meets requirements of each division and is ready for construction. 02/10/09: No change in status. 09/25/09: Processed PCR incorporating ASD required change to Compressed air & Nitrogen system. No other significant changes to date.

28 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk Update Major Risks Retired Ring Building contract: single biggest risk (from $20~80M risk item to $0) FY09 continuing resolution FY10 funding uncertainty Elimination or significant revision of DOE order “Safety of Accelerator Facilities” Accelerator Controls System procurement Major Risks with Significantly Reduced Ratings Changes to Conventional Facilities requirements (from $16M to $2M) Directed funding profile change Unexpected ESH issues (design) Unexpected difficulties with dynamic aperture Linac turn key procurement Storage Ring power supply design

29 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Summary of Risks cost risk rating overall rating estimated retire date ID#WBSDescription($K) costscheduletechnical ESH Construction Safety$3,000MMn/aMJun-14 PMG additional labor$1,400Mn/a MJun-13 PMG additional space charge$3,000Hn/a HOct-12 ASD unexpected difficulties with dynamic aperture$1,000 LLLLOct-13 ASD Linac turn key procurement$1,000 LLLLDec-10 ASD Booster turn key procurement$7,000MMLMAug-10 ASD Injection straight$1,400LLLLAug-10 ASD SR magnet production$1,000LMLMDec-10 ASD SR vacuum chamber production$2,000MHLHDec-10 ASD SR power supply design$2,000LLLLNov-10 ASD SR RF cavity production$3,000 MMMHOct-13 ASD Insertion device production$6,000 MLLMNov-10 ASD BPM electronics$800LLLLAug-10 ASD SR installation - underestimated labor$3,000MLLMDec-11 XFD IXS$2,400MLLMOct HXN$3,100MLLMOct CHX$2,000MLLMOct CSX$2,400MLLMOct SRX$2,300MLLMOct XPD$2,000MLLMOct-12 CFD Changes in requirements for conventional facilities$2,000MLLMJun-14 CFD Field changes for conventional construction$6,200HLLHApr-12 CFD LOB contract$8,000MLLMApr-10 subtotal$66,000

30 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Estimate at Completion (EAC) General Principles Aggressively pursue accurate EAC information as a management tool  Monthly management assessment  Annual comprehensive assessment Estimates that are good projections (~50%<probability<~90%) but still can be managed to affect the actual outcome can continue to be tracked in the EAC Probability<~50% tracked and managed as Risks Changes in estimates (both high and low) that are very certain to become reality and have potentially project-wide consequences: we address in a baseline change (sometimes using contingency) Managing to the baseline Contingency is not a routine solution

31 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Overall Performance On Schedule and On Budget Excellent cost & procurement performance to date Sound cost baseline with healthy remaining contingency Technically limited schedule with projected early completion date advancing by 4 months (16 months of schedule float) Negative schedule variances in specific areas: well understood and actively managed Risks and EAC well understood, tracked and managed A number of major risks (technical, cost & schedule) retired or reduced ratings No more issues with planned schedule vs anticipated funding profile.