Modeling & Forecasting Breakout Group Input to SECOORA Business Plan (Jacksonville, July 27-28, 2005) ‏

Modeling & Forecasting : Current What we have: - global models: NCOM, HYCOM - “mature” wave model software for nearshore - quasi-operational models for most estuaries - developing coral habitat maps Validation needs - NCOM & HYCOM in SECOORA region - Standardized validation methods Data needs - More observations to “drive” models Computational resources - Scattered between groups; uncoordinated Lambda rail

Modeling & Forecasting : 1 year Computational Facilities - centralized vs distributed - plan for future needs Virtual Operations Center - design the infrastructure - determine data needs - begin region-wide ensembles Biological/fish models - assess data needs - plan model development

Modeling & Forecasting : 2-5 year Computational Facilities - build shared facilities - expand national coastal ocean modeling grid Virtual Operations Center - implement from seaward edge of EEZ to estuaries/lagoons/rivers - components: storm surge, tides, waves, circulation, ecosystems - error tracking Biological models - address: recruitment, larval transport, etc. - fish stock assessment

Modeling & Forecasting Action Items Develop communication mechanism –Web-based clearinghouse –SECOORA news web-resources… volunteers? Develop Strategic Plan for Modeling & Forecasting –Plan transitions to operations –Coordination between groups –Define test beds Investigate System Engineering Approach Establish a Virtual Operations Center

Modeling & Forecasting Action Items Develop PRIORITIZED list of user needs –What can we do now? –What are criteria for prioritization Engage the National Backbone –Through NFRA, Ocean.US Get Academic Results into Fed Agencies? –Start with NWS & waves –Demonstrate academic capabilities –Engage in Federal planning/funding processes