Modeling coordination T. Satomura Kyoto University

Before start Till now, not the all modeling WG members respond to me about their modeling plan. There are few modelers here and modelers are not well coordinated yet. I’m afraid major part of modelers do not have strong interests in AMY08 now. But, I hope after IOP (2008) they will be interested in simulating or validating some events. Thus, it is not early but not too late to call them to AMY08 and coordinate them. This is a simple and private summary based on inputs from some of WG members.

Inputted WG members or countries Indonesia (Dr. Edvin Aldrian) J. Chan Japan (Drs. Kitoh, Satoh, Satomura) H. Hendon

To be included India –CTCZ China –AIPO –MAIRS –NPOIMS –SCHeREX Chinse-Taiwan –SoWMEX

Korea –Yunsei Univ. Japan –HyARC –JAMSTEC APCC IPRC Asian and non-Asian H-M governmental agencies and more …

On going studies: Japan Global Cloud Resolving Model (NICAM) –Short-term simulations up to seasonal change –MJO simulation –Tropical cyclogenesis and climatology

New JMA/MRI-Coupled GCM Operational for El Nino Prediction New CGCM AGCMT42L20TL95L40 OGCM65S-70N, 0-360E 2.5°by °L20 75S-75N, 0-360E 1.0°by °L50 Couplin g Every 24-hour Wind-stress, Heat-flux Adjustment Every 1-hour Wind-stress, Heat-flux Adjustment Ocean Assimila tion JMA-ODAS 3D-VAR(T,S) T, S on GTS, COBE-SST, SSH MOVE/MRI.COM Usui et al. (2006) 3D-VAR(T,S) T, S on GTS, COBE-SST, SSH vertical EOF modes of T-S coupling

Improved Precipitation Skills Correlation (Hindcast-CMAP) JJA from JAN DJF from JUL CGCM AGCM

On going studies vs Objectives (1) Improve understanding of the ocean-land- atmosphere-biosphere interaction, multi- scale interaction from diurnal to intraseasonal, and aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction in the Asian monsoon system; JC, JPNC, JPESM, JPCM, JPRM, IN, MAIRS, AIPO, APCC, AU

(2) Determine the variability and predictability of the key components of Asian monsoon on intraseasonal to interannual time scales. In particular, the role of land surface processes… –JC, JPHR, APCC, NPOIMS, AIPO, AU (3) Improve physical representation in coupled climate models and develop data assimilation of the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon regions…; –JC, JPNC, JPCM, IN, APCC, AIPO, NPOIMS, AU

(4) Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead time up to a season), including a real-time monitoring capability and an integrated hydro- meteorological database in Southeast Asia; –JPRM, (GaME-T,…) (5) Better understand how human activities in the monsoon Asia region interact with atmospheric, terrestrial and marine environmental components. – JC, JPESM, JPHR, IN, MAIRS

Global modelers are interested in ISV or MJO prediction/predictablity –Kitoh, Satoh, Hendon, APCC Seasonal prediction/precitability –Kitoh, Satoh, APCC Climatic change and monsoon –Kitoh Land surface initialization –Hendon Material transport –Kitoh, MAIRS

Regional modelers are interested in Understanding mechanisms of diurnal to seasonal timescale events –Onset and maintenance of monsoon –Significant events –Diurnal variations Material transport Local climate

Suggestions Modeling research along with the objective (4) (realtime H-M prediction) should be encouraged during AMY08. To provide common initial data and validate different model results under common validation data and method are necessary: New taskforce? APCC can do that?