Overview of the South Australian Labour Market Presenter: Ivan Neville Branch Manager, Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

How is the South Australian labour market performing? Selected indicators over the last year In line with a softening in labour market conditions at the national level… Employment - up by 2,000 (or 0.2 per cent) Unemployment - rose by 5,900 (or 11.7 per cent) Unemployment rate per cent, up by 0.6 percentage points Participation rate per cent, down by 0.1 percentage points State Final Demand - increased by 0.6 per cent Redundancies - 5,910 announced so far this year (56 per cent State government)

Internet vacancies in South Australia Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, September 2014.

How does South Australia compare nationally? Employment ('000) Unemployment rate (%) Participation rate (%) Sep-14 Annual change Sep-14 Annual change (% pts) Sep-14 Annual change (% pts) ('000)(%) NSW3, Vic2, Qld2, SA WA1, Tas NT ACT Australia11,

Employment growth by age and gender South Australia, Year to September 2014

Composition of employment growth by gender South Australia, Year to September 2014

The changing nature of industry employment in South Australia Industry share of employment (%)

Underemployment rising and above national average

Youth unemployment since the GFC Higher rates across most States and Territories

Youth disengagement States and Territories, September 2014

Unemployed youth less likely to move into employment Probability of transitioning from unemployment to employment (15-24 year olds)

Higher education and VET graduate outcomes weaker Employment outcomes have weakened since 2008 In 2013, 71.3% of bachelor degree graduates found full-time employment after graduating o Lowest level since 1993 o Large numbers working in lower skilled occupations or fewer hours than they would like 78.2% of VET graduates found employment in 2013 o Down by 4.2% pts since 2008 The Department of Education projects that in , around 30% of bachelor degree graduates will still be seeking full-time employment four months after completing their degree

Long-term unemployment on the rise Long-term (52+ weeks) and total unemployed persons (‘000) in South Australia

Youth share of LTU has increased Burden of LTU disproportionately felt by year olds in South Australia year olds comprise just 15.8 per cent of the civilian 15+ population, yet make up 27.6 per cent of all long-term unemployed persons

Shifts in LTU incidence in recent years Long-term unemployment share of total unemployment (%), South Australia

Unemployed remain so for too long Unemployment duration (weeks) by age group, South Australia

Regional hotspots SA4 Region Unemployment rate (%) Participation rate (%) Annual employment growth (%) Proportion of population in receipt of income support Proportion of population who have a Bachelor Degree or above Sep-14 Aug-11 Adelaide - Central and Hills Adelaide - North Adelaide - South Adelaide – West Barossa - Yorke - Mid North South Australia - Outback South Australia - South East South Australia

Labour market outcomes for people with disabilities year olds, South Australia With reported disabilityNo reported disability Share of total employment (%)10.8%11.3%13.3%89.0%88.7%86.7% Unemployment rate (%)9.5%8.3%9.2%5.2% 5.5% Participation rate (%)52.6%54.5%51.4%83.2%83.5%81.0% 21.5 per cent of South Australians live with a disability (18.5 per cent nationally) Labour market outcomes remain considerably poorer for people with disabilities The number of employed people with a disability has fallen by 3.3 per cent since 2009

Going forward, conditions are expected to remain subdued A number of downside risks remain to these forecasts: Faster than expected withdrawal by Holden and Toyota Defence contracts potentially going overseas Ongoing business and consumer caution Rate and size of fall in mining investment Economic and labour market forecasts, South Australia Gross State product (%) Employment (%) Unemployment rate (%)* 6.7

Projected employment growth in South Australia - selected industries, five years to November 2018 Source: Department of Employment, 2014 Employment Projections to November 2018.

Conclusion Labour market conditions currently subdued Treasury forecasts and forward indicators suggest soft labour market outlook Future labour market challenges – Long-term unemployed – Youth – Ageing population/ declining participation – Mining transition from construction to production phase – Ongoing structural change