WILL RUSSIA FACE LABOR FORCE SHORTAGE IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS? (REVISED RESULTS FOR DISCUSSION ) June 14, 2011

Key introductory points  This exercise does not attempt to estimate the contribution of labor migrants to GDP growth in Russia  It clarifies the gap between projected number of labor force of Russian nationals and required number of labor force to achieve targeted level of GDP under various assumptions on TFP growth, labor participation rate (LPR) and investment-to-GDP ratio  To impose reasonable assumptions we first conduct simple growth accounting exercise to estimate labor, capital and TFP contribution to economic growth in Russian Federation over period for total and non-oil GDP and at country and regional levels  We chose Central Federal District (as the largest recipient of labor migrants) and North-West Federal District (as region with lower share of labor migrant in total employment), together accounting for the bulk of economic activity in the country.  Methodological approach remained unchanged compared to the first draft, with only exception that we have introduced simulations to demonstrate how deficit/surplus of labor force required to achieve a certain rate of long-term economic growth rate changes depending on long-term TFP growth rate

Methodology I.To estimate input factors contribution to GDP growth we use simple growth accounting equation:  where Y is output, A is TFP, L and K are labor and capital inputs and α is labor inputs share  we use GDP (in PPP constant 2000 US$) from the WB WDI as proxy for total output  we use actual employment as proxy for labor inputs and share of wages in GDP as proxy for labor share  we use capital stock adjusted for capital utilization (in PPP constant 2000 US$) for from the WB dataset developed for ECA Flagship Report “Unleashing Prosperity: Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union” (2007)  we estimate capital stock after 2005 using perpetual inventory method  where I is investment and  is capital depreciation rate  we use Gross Fixed Capital Formation (in PPP constant 2000 US$) from the WB WDI database as proxy for investment  we assume that capital depreciation rate is 0.05, which is commonly used in the literature and on average close to actual numbers recorded in official statistics; however for non-oil GDP we make adjustment based on actual depreciation rates as capital depreciation rate in mining sector in Russia is almost two times higher than for total economy II.We impose various assumptions on targeted GDP growth, TFP growth, LPR and investment-to-GDP ratio in simulations to estimate potential labor force deficit/surplus under various scenarios III.We understand all limitations of this model as well as of the data. We use it only to demonstrate how labor force needs in Russian Federation may change in future depending on targeted economic growth rates, targeted improvements in factors productivity, level of participation of working age population in labor force and investment levels; so the Government could address potential labor force shortage beforehand

Content  Labor force projections under several assumptions regarding LPR  Results of growth accounting at country level  Estimated TFP contribution to GDP growth (total and non-oil) over  Required TFP growth over to achieve targeted rate of GDP growth (total and non-oil-gas) under baseline assumptions  Results of simulations to estimate labor force deficit/surplus depending on hypothetical long term TFP growth rates for optimistic and pessimistic cases (for non-oil-gas GDP) optimistic case: stronger economic growth, higher investment rate and higher LPR compared to baseline pessimistic case: moderate economic growth, low investment rate and baseline LPR  Results of growth accounting at regional level  Estimated TFP contribution to GRP growth over for Central and North-West federal districts, as non of these two regions is major oil/gas producer we do not differentiate between oil and non-oil GDP  Results of simulations to estimate labor force deficit/surplus depending on a hypothetical long term TFP growth rates for optimistic and pessimistic cases (as defined for country-level simulations)  Annex I: Data sources  Annex II. Economic Growth in Top Eight Resource-Rich countries

Labor force projections under different assumptions on Labor Participation rates (LPR) based on National Population Forecast (base line) Source: own calculations based on RF National Statistics Committee data

Labor force projections under different assumptions on Labor Participation rates (LPR) based on National Population Forecast (optimistic) Source: own calculations based on RF National Statistics Committee data

Labor force projections under different assumptions on Labor Participation rates (LPR) based on National Population Forecast (pessimistic) Source: own calculations based on RF National Statistics Committee data

Results of Growth Accounting at Country Level: total GDP I.Estimated TFP contribution to GDP growth over and required TFP growth over under baseline assumptions: to achieve targeted GDP growth (conservative 4.5 percent per year*), investment-to-GDP ratio equal to average, and 3 scenarios for different LPRs * Based on weighted average annual growth rate for the top four developing recourse-rich countries (Brazil, Chile, China and South Africa) during (see Annex II) Actual Scenario 1: Base case LPR est. for baseline population forecast Scenario 2: 2.5 % increase LPR est. for optimistic population forecast Scenario 3: Base case LPR est. for pessimistic population forecast Output Capital, adjusted Labor TFP

Results of Growth Accounting at Country Level: non-oil-gas GDP II.Estimated TFP contribution to non-oil-gas GDP growth over and required TFP growth over under baseline assumptions: to achieve targeted non-oil-gas GDP growth (assuming that oil and gas sector contribution will be on average negative 0.5 percent per year for and zero percent for ), investment-to-GDP ratio equal to average, and 3 scenarios for different LPRs Actual Scenario 1: Base case LPR est. for baseline population forecast Scenario 2: 2.5 % increase LPR est. for optimistic population forecast Scenario 3: Base case LPR est. for pessimistic population forecast Output Capital, adjusted Labor TFP

Results of Growth Accounting at the Country Level: Simulated labor deficit/surplus depending on TFP growth rates (Optimistic case) Assumptions:  6.0 percent non-oil-gas GDP growth  2.5 percent across the board increase in LPR  Investment-to-GDP ratio in non-oil-gas sector is 25% of GDP Interpretation:  Domestic labor supply will be sufficient if long-term productivity growth is about 4.5 percent per year over  0.5 annual productivity growth yields substantial labor force deficit  5.0 annual productivity growth yields small labor surplus

Results of Growth Accounting at the Country Level: Simulated labor deficit/surplus depending on TFP growth rates (Pessimistic case) Assumptions:  3.0 percent GDP growth  Base case LPR  Investment-to-GDP ratio in non-oil-gas sector is 15% of GDP Interpretation:  Domestic labor supply will be sufficient if long-term productivity growth is about 3.2 percent per year over  0.5 annual productivity growth yields substantial labor force deficit  5.0 annual productivity growth yields notable labor surplus

Results of Growth Accounting at Regional Level: Estimated TFP contribution to GRP growth over I.Central Federal District (CFD): share of migrants in total number of employed was 5.4 percent in 2008, with the highest share of 10.3 percent for Moscow II.North-West Federal District (NWFD): share of migrants in total number of employed was 2.8 percent in Output Capital, adjusted Labor TFP Output Capital, adjusted Labor TFP6.12.3

Results of Growth Accounting at Regional Level (I): Simulated labor deficit/surplus depending on TFP growth rates Central Federal DistrictNorth-West Federal DistrictRussian Federation* Population, 2009, mln. ppl Employment, 2009, mln. ppl Share of labor migrants in total employment, 2008, % Optimistic scenario: 6 percent average GDP growth, 2.5% increase in labor participation rate for optimistic population forecast, average investment ratio 25 percent of GDP Est. hypothetical labor force deficit "-"/surplus "+" under very concervative long-term TFP growth of 0.5 percent per year by 2020, mln. ppl by 2030, mln. ppl TFP growth at which domestic labor supply will be about sufficient Pessimistic scenario: 3.0 percent average GDP growth, base case labor participation rate, average investment ratio 15 percent of GDP Est. hypothetical labor force deficit "-"/surplus "+" under very concervative long-term TFP growth of 0.5 percent per year by 2020, mln. ppl by 2030, mln. ppl TFP growth at which domestic labor supply will be sufficient * Scenarios at national level are estimated for non-oil-gas GDP

Results of Growth Accounting at Regional Level (II): Simulated labor deficit/surplus depending on TFP growth rates

Concluding observations  The analysis indicates that domestic supply of labor in Russian Federation could be sufficient to ensure long-term non-oil-gas growth rate of above 3.0 percent with moderate level of investments in non-oil-gas sectors (of 15% of GDP) if the country is able to sustain strong productivity growth rates of above 3.2 percent per year in a long-term;  Above 6.0 percent long-term non-oil-gas growth rate combined with investment rate of 25% of GDP in non-oil-gas sectors will require stronger TFP growth of about 4.5 percent per year in long term, which could be feasible for the country like Russia – example of Korea over the period of , when annual TFP growth averaged at about 4 percent, proves it’s possible;  The higher economic growth targets or lower TFP growth rates in a long-term could require larger capital investments or higher growth rates of labor force. The later will likely lead to a shortage of labor, which can be addressed through various policy interventions, including among others measures aimed at increasing LPRs, improving health/education outcomes, or attracting labor migrants from abroad;  The exercise yields results which are consistent at country and regional levels.

Annex I. Data sources Population by age and territoryOfficial, GKS Population projections World Population Prospects, United Nations Population Division (updated in 2010) Labor migration by territory and sector"21 Century" Foundation/MIRPAL Labor participation ratesBased on official employment statistics by age group, GKS OutputGDP, PPP (constant 2000 US$), WB WDI Non-oil GDP Est. based on CEM, WB 2005 and Gurvich et. al “Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Resource Rich Countries, ” HSE 2007, Moscow; includes oil and natural gas InvestmentsGross Fixed Capital Formation, PPP (constant 2000 US$), WB WDI Capital, national Level Capital Stock adjusted for capital utilization, PPP (constant 2000 US$), “Unleashing Prosperity: Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, World Bank; after 2005 calculated using perpetual inventory method Capital, regional level Calculated using actual shares obtained from official data on accounting (remaining) value of capital stocks Employment by sector and territoryOfficial, GKS Labor and capital sharesOfficial input-output table, GKS

Annex II. Economic Growth in Top Eight Resource-Rich countries GDP per capita, US$ 2009 GDP average annual growth Weighted (by GDP per capita) average annual growth Brazil8, Chile9, China3, South Africa5, Above Four4.5 United States45, Australia42, Canada39, Above Three2.4 Russia8, Source: WB WDI database, own calculations