Bay Area Earthquakes – Utility & Lifeline Issues Bay Area Earthquakes – Utility & Lifeline Issues JEANNE PERKINS Consultant, ABAG Earthquake and Hazards Program

Realistically – earthquakes dominate any analysis. 141

Shaking Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward Shaking Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

Key External “inputs” to business?* Key External “inputs” to business?* 1 - People? safety/housing/families? 2 - Transportation? roads/bridges/airports? 3 - Utilities? power/ communications / water? *NOTE: these are “beyond” your facilities and equipment

1 – People: Housing Impacts 1 – People: Housing Impacts

Past Housing Impacts Over 16,000 uninhabitable units in Loma Prieta Over 46,000 uninhabitable units in Northridge Over 155,000 uninhabitable units in future Hayward or San Andreas earthquakes

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault 155,700 uninhabitable units (300,000 – Katrina) 356,600 people displaced (1,700,000 – Katrina) 110,300 peak shelter population

What Happens - M 6.7 on Southern Hayward Fault What Happens - M 6.7 on Southern Hayward Fault 93,000 uninhabitable units 220,000 people displaced 70,000 peak shelter population

The Nightmare Goes On and On...

The Housing Crisis Goes On and On... SHELTERING Peak - 70,000 people on day 7 25,000 in shelters on day 90

.. and On and On... DOLLAR LOSSES Residential Losses = $ 90 Billion Losses Covered by Earthquake Insurance = $ 4.4 Billion – 5%

Multifamily vs. Single-Family 84% of the problem in the Southern Hayward Earthquake Nightmare

Collapse: 1994 Northridge Quake

Who Has the Housing Problem? Workers repairing the housing Workers repairing the roads Workers repairing the pipelines Workers running the offices ALL OF USALL OF US

2 - Transportation Impacts

2 PAST EARTHQUAKES 142 road closures in Loma Prieta 140 road closures in Northridge 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES 17 Bigger than these earthquakes 0 Bigger than New Orleans

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault -- 1,650 total closures – (1,138 if South Hayward) Most toll bridges not usable for days Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties Entire East Bay isolated

7 state-owned toll bridges: ◦San Francisco-Oakland Bay ◦San Mateo-Hayward ◦Dumbarton ◦Richmond-San Rafael ◦Carquinez ◦Benicia-Martinez ◦Antioch PLUS - ◦Golden Gate (GGBHD) * Golden Gate Bridge owned and operated by the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (GGBHTD) * Initial Mitigation Priority = Key Facilities Initial Mitigation Priority = Key Facilities

Yes! Progress!

Recovery Timeline

PROBLEM = Roads vs. Transportation Structures Hundreds of road closures due to faulting and liquefaction and…. These same roads will have water pipeline breaks. Isolation and HORRIBLE access with repairs delayed due to number, not complexity, of problem.

Airport System Impacts

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault SFO probably disruption / access OAK probably CLOSED SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit /rebuilding completed in 2003 ABAG working to get a recovery plan for airports

3 - Utility System Impacts

What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault 507 documented water pipeline leaks/ruptures in Loma Prieta BUT IN A HAYWARD QUAKE: 5,500 leaks/ ruptures due to shaking PLUS 100 or more due to landslides PLUS 500 due to faulting PLUS 1,000-2,000 ? due to liquefaction

Initial Mitigation Priority = Key Facilities Initial Mitigation Priority = Key Facilities Water storage Aqueducts Water treatment Wastewater treatment Pumps and pumping plants Tunnels

Distribution Systems Not Yet Fixed Assume that water may be disrupted for weeks or months – not 72 hours. Additional delays due to problems with the roads (access) and impacted workers.

Bay Area Earthquakes – Big Picture Efforts Bay Area Earthquakes – Big Picture Efforts

Bay Area Multi-Jurisdiction Local Hazard Mitigation Plan GOAL – To develop a disaster-resistant region by Reducing the potential loss of life, property damage, and environmental degradation from natural disasters, while Speeding economic recovery from those disasters.

Long-Term Recovery Initiative GOAL – 3 years to recovery – not 10 years Financing Recovery Recovery of Government Housing (including soft-story) Business (particularly small local ones)

Long-Term Recovery (continued) Utilities and Transportation Schools and Education Health Care Land Use Change Governance

Where is ABAG’s information on the internet? AND we need your feedback on these MITIGATION and RECOVERY efforts!