Congress II 3/19/2012

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – identify and explain the role of formal (congressional) institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. – have a better understanding of why our national government works and why the American system of government is unique.

Office Hours and Readings Chapter 8 on Congress Office Hours – Today 12-2 – Wednesday 10-2

The Three Things You Need Getting Elected

WE DO NOT VOTE FOR NOBODIES Name Recognition

To Be Known, is to be known favorably Media focuses on known candidates Means more money spent elswehere

Who Has Name Recognition Incumbents Lower Level office holders Prominent people in the community

Who Has Name Recognition: Born into it

Actors From the Love BoatLove Boat From the Dukes of Hazzard Hazzard Stuart Smalley

Athletes GoodBad

MONEY Running for Congress is not Free

You need to raise and spend money There is no public money available It keeps getting more expensive Winning a seat – 1.1 Million in the House – 6.5 Million in the Senate

Why So Expensive? Television Travel The War Chest

Where You Get it People Pacs Party/other

Spend other People’s money

Outspend My Challenger

Money may not be the most important thing in a campaign, but it is a close second to what ever is

INCUMBENCY

Incumbency It is a great job, and you want to keep it Incumbency gives you both money and name recognition

Why Do Incumbents Win?: Money People don’t give money to losers You want a Return on Investment

Why Do Incumbents Win? Gerrymandering in the House Name Recognition in House and Senate – Credit Claiming on bills

Why do incumbents win: Constituency Services Helping out the people back home Earmarks Traditional Service

Why Incumbents Win: Homestyle We vote for people like us We vote for people we trust You have to learn to match the district

You Can’t Beat Somebody with no body Weak Challengers People Who Spend their own moneymoney They Run Unopposed

House Reelection Rates

Senate Reelection Rates

The Senate historically has lower rates of reelection, why?

WHY DO INCUMBENTS LOSE?

Scandal

Why Else do you lose Redistricting National Trends and Coat-tails Out of Touch/Too Old First Re-election bid

OPEN SEATS The Real battles

What Creates an Open Seat Reapportionment in the House Strategic Retirements – Win>Not Run>Lose Ambition

Open Seat Elections Home of the Real Fights Parties and Pacs pour in money Parties believe if they can win, they can keep the seat forever Strategic Candidates

2010 A Good year for the Republicans

A Historical Perspective

Factor 1: Who isn’t there No BushNo Obama

Factor 2 Issues favored the GOP Economy Trumps Everything and GOP has the Edge Health Care is a push No One Cares about Afghanistan

Midyears as Referendum on the Economy

Factor 3 Mid Year Elections Serve as Referendums on the President President Obama is not unpopular (e.g. Bush 2006) But he is not popular either (e.g. Clinton 1998) The Result is the Dems lose seats

Factor 4: Midyear Elections favor the Outparty Turnout decreases among president’s party Bandwagon effect is less among independents Angry voters more than satisfied voters

The House Results GOP Gets – 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) – 30 of 42 Tossups – 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

The Senate Results The Democrats Hold The Tea Party takes 3 seats, but loses 3 other

2012 Looking Ahead

In The House 435 House Seats Many are held by rookies Democrats need 46 seats to take it back

In the Senate 33 Senate Races The Class of “2006” The GOP needs 4 seats (51) There are 10 Toss-ups

What Can Happen? Obama wins big Obama has a personal victory A Republican wins