The Green of Gray: THE NEW ECONOMY of an Aging Population Michael D. Alexander, AICP “Mike” Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission Michael D. Alexander, AICP “Mike” Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission 1

LongevityLongevity 2

National Population Change 2010 to 2040 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (National Data from the 20- County Area Forecast) 3

Aging Now 4 Source: Census and ESRI Demographics

Who is Working is Changing Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area) 5

NEW ECONOMIC STRENGTH Billion in 65+ Wages Actually, it is $960 million (2013) In 2013 Q1, those aged 65+ held 3.7% of the jobs in the 10-county ARC area The average monthly wage is $1,208 for those 65+, which does lag the overall average monthly wage for all others (18- 64) in the workforce at $1,400 …For some higher-paying industries, e.g. Professional Services, Mgmt. of Companies, average wages for 65+ are higher Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis) 6

Average Wages for Older Age Cohorts Growing (particularly for 65+) Average Wages for Older Age Cohorts Growing (particularly for 65+) Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau And in raw numbers, the 65+ trends are even more impressive 7

Jobs Added in Older Age Cohorts, Despite Overall Loss of Jobs Despite Overall Loss of Jobs Jobs Added in Older Age Cohorts, Despite Overall Loss of Jobs Despite Overall Loss of Jobs Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau 8

Growth in the 65+ Workforce From , the jobs for those 65+ did increase 16,802, BUT – Jobs for increased 119,786 The explosion in 65+ happened in recession and recovery period of Between 2007 and 2013 (recession and recovery), the 65+ workforce has increased by 14,846 jobs while the job base has declined by 78,656 jobs! So jobs filled by 65+ went up almost 30%, while jobs filled by those aged fell by 4% ,000 67,000 Increased by Almost 100% 2013 Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis) 9

Profile: Workers Age 65+ (Expanding Sectors) Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 65+, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 65+ workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 65+ have increased their concentrations in these sectors since So, while Education, Other Services and Arts/Entertainment are the most popular sectors today for this age cohort, Transportation/Warehousing, and Manufacturing are becoming more popular for this age cohort. Becoming less “popular” Becoming more “popular” 10

Workforce by Age Q

Source: REMI WHAT DOES REMI SAY? REMI Econometric Model Features WHAT DOES REMI SAY? REMI Econometric Model Features Incorporates transparent and robust economic linkages built on proven methods and theory Each model is custom built to match regional client specificity Measures economic impacts and responsive demographic and economic changes over time Model incorporates four unique quantitative methodologies IntegratedDynamic StructuralCustomized Rehearsing the Future using Economic Forecasting 12

Age Composition Change Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area) 13

1990 Labor Force Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area) 14

Labor Force 2013 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area) 15

Labor Force 2040 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area) 16

Expenditure “Power” of Older Adults: Tourism Source: Deloitte lton “Graying of America” webinar 17

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar Economic Benefits of “Retirees” Retirees bring incomes earned from outside of region Pension Payments, Social Security, and other retirement savings Outside income spent on housing, health care, consumer goods and services Attracting (or retaining) retirees can be viewed as an “export industry” of the region, similar to tourism 18

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI REMI Retirement Migration Scenario FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL Assumptions – Annual increase of 1, retired migrants per year to 20-county economy from – Distribution weighted on 65+ population in each county – No explicit costs considered Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net” benefits) – Increase of $40B in Personal Income – Increase of $7.8B in GDP – Almost 100,000 more job-years for the economy ‘15-’40 – Population increase of 16,000 by 2040 (LOSS across some other cohorts) $40 Billion More in Personal Income $7.8 Billion In Additional GDP What if more retirees move to Metro Atlanta??? 19

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI (ARC Analysis) REMI Working Age Migration Scenario FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL Assumptions aged – Annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged per year to 20-county economy from – Distribution weighted on population aged in each county – No explicit costs considered Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net” benefits) – Increase of $4B in Personal Income – Increase of $2.6 in GDP – Almost 29,400 more job-years for the economy ‘15-’40 – Population increase of 8,000 by 2040 $4 Billion More in Personal Income $2.6 Billion In Additional GDP What if more working age (18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta? 20

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar Retirement Migration and the Economy Demand Side – Retirees have significant spending on goods and services – Consumption patterns differ for retirees (e.g. more health care spending) Supply Side – Loss of labor force as baby boom moves from working to retirement – Regions need to replace this labor force through natural growth or in-migration Reminder of the caveats: no explicit costs AND… Scenario>> historically high 65+ in-migration 21

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI REMI Retirement Migration Scenario FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL Assumptions – Annual increase of retired migrants per year to 20-county economy from – Distribution weighted on 65+ population in each county – No explicit costs considered Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net” benefits) – Increase of $20B in Personal Income – Increase of $3.9B in GDP – Almost 50,000 more job-years for the economy ‘15-’40 – Population increase of 8,000 by 2040 (LOSS across some other cohorts) $20 Billion More in Personal Income $3.9 Billion In Additional GDP What if not quite as many more retirees move to Metro Atlanta??? 22

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population What You Need to Know! The New Economy is increasingly dependent on the work of our 65+ population (share of labor force up) These workers are already earning close to a BILLION dollars a year in wages, with average wages climbing In the future, these workers will add Billions to our regional economy in the future. Attracting additional retirees to Metro Atlanta would have strong positive impact to our Economy  Income sources and spending patterns Seniors are a critical part of our economic competitiveness Source: REMI (ARC Analysis) 23

The Green of Gray: THE NEW ECONOMY of an Aging Population Michael D. Alexander, AICP “Mike” Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission Michael D. Alexander, AICP “Mike” Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission 24

Population Growth Comparison United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia (139 Counties) Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)

Age Population Growth Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)

Regional Age By Race/Ethnicity 1990 to 2040 Age 0-14 Age Age Age 65+ Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)

Expenditure “Power” of Older Adults: Healthcare Source: Deloitte, 2009 Hospitals Prescription Drugs

Workers Age 65+ (Most Popular Sectors) Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 65+, or which sectors that this age cohort is more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 65+ are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Education, Other Services and Arts/Entertainment are the most popular sectors for this age cohort. Less Concentrated More Concentrated

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Dimensions of Regional Growth and Change Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar

Retirement Income in Georgia Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar most-least-friendly-states-retirees- 8C

Expenditure “Power” of Older Adults: Healthcare Source: Deloitte lton “Graying of America” webinar

(1)National Demographic Trends Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar

Extreme Aging Thousands Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)

Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population (2)National Demographic Trends Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar

Regional Attractiveness Source: Plan 2040 Transportation Update, 2014

National Labor Force Participation Rates by Race/ Ethnicity Estimated 1992-Projected 2022 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Population Determinants Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)

Region’s Employment Opportunity Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)