V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt CRGAQS: Initial CAMx Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team By ENVIRON International Corporation October 31, 2006 (boo!)

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Today’s Presentation Describe initial CAMx simulations –Model configuration –Performance evaluation metrics Performance for PM and light extinction Next Steps

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Model Configuration

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Model Configuration CAMx version 4.40 “Run 1” configuration –Maximize model speed Mechanism 4 – CF (static 2-mode PM chemistry) Bott advection solver No PiG OMP parallel processing on Linux quad-CPU –O’Brien Kv profile with 0.1 m 2 /s minimum –10-day model spin-up period 36-km grid only first 8 days 36/12-km grid last 2 days

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Model Configuration Episodes –August 10-22, 2004 Meteorology from MM5 Run 6, 36/12-km grids Flexi-nesting to the 4-km grid –November 4-18, 2004 Meteorology from MM5 Run 3, all grids Identified issues –Small temporal profile problem for fires –No on-road vehicle ammonia emissions in 4-km grid

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation Review spatial plots Review statistical performance –Species Individual PM species Total PM 2.5 and PM 10 Light scattering/extinction –Monitors IMPROVE, Gorge sites, FRM/STN Focus on sites along Gorge

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation –Metrics Fractional bias and gross error Regression and correlation –Need to develop time series of scattering and extinction

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation August 14, noonPristine

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE August NO3August SO4

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE August NH4August OC

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE August ECAugust Primary Fine

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE August Primary CoarseAugust Total PM2.5

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE August Total PM10August Bext

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge August NO3August SO4

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge August NH4August OC

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge August ECAugust Bscat

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – STN August NO3August SO4

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge August NH4August OC

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge August ECAugust FRM PM2.5

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial August Modeling NO3, SO4, and NH4 were mostly under predicted –CAMx predictions higher at Gorge sites later in episode, but data were not available –More NH3 may increase NO3 and NH4 OC was mostly over predicted at IMPROVE and Gorge sites –Driven by fires

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial August Modeling EC was over predicted at IMPROVE but under predicted at Gorge sites –Reasons not clear – is Gorge EC backed out from aetholometer readings? Total PM2.5 looks good –Balance of component over and under predictions CM and PM10 were mostly under predicted at IMPROVE site

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial August Modeling Reconstructed scattering and extinction look good –Due to good PM2.5 predictions and dry conditions Contribution from under predicted hygroscopic salts just about balance contribution from over predicted carbon –CM doesn’t play a large role in visibility

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation November 10, noonPristine

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Performance Evaluation

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE November NO3November SO4

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE November NH4November OC

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE November ECNovember Primary Fine

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE November Primary CoarseNovember Total PM2.5

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – IMPROVE November Total PM10November Bext

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge November NO3November SO4

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge November NH4November OC

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge November ECNovember Bscat

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – STN November NO3November SO4

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge November NH4November OC

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Statistics – Gorge November ECNovember FRM PM2.5

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial November Modeling More NO3 and SO4 was observed and predicted than in the August episode. OC and PM2.5 were much lower over domain than in August since wildfire season was over

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial November Modeling SO4 performed well at IMPROVE sites, but was under predicted at the GORGE and STN sites NO3 performance was scattered NH4 was mostly under predicted OC and EC performance OK, but there were some over prediction outliers

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial November Modeling Primary fine and coarse (soil) was over predicted at all IMPROVE sites on all dates –Fine PM emissions may not reflect squelching effect of recent rains Reconstructed total PM2.5 and PM10 slightly over predicted –Driven by carbon and primary over predictions

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Initial November Modeling Extinction at IMPROVE sites was generally too low, while scattering at Gorge sites exhibits little skill –Under predicted salts are not contributing sufficient scattering –More NH3 might not help –Lack of modeled fog probably is not generating enough sulfates and nitrates

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt Moving Forward Sensitivity/Diagnostic runs –Revised emissions (fix identified problems) –Kv sensitivity CMAQ approach Alternative minimum Kz –Met sensitivity for August? (use Run 3) –Increase NH3 emissions –Reduce primary fine/coarse emissions in November