2050 Hindsight…. “Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going” - John Naisbitt, Megatrends, 1982 CFA Societies of South Africa.

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Presentation transcript:

2050 Hindsight…. “Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going” - John Naisbitt, Megatrends, 1982 CFA Societies of South Africa and Mauritius Lawrence Speidell Chief Investment Officer, CEO Frontier Market Asset Management February 2013

2050 Hindsight Where are we… where were we? Growth Drivers –Human Capital Demographics Education, Innovation, Wages Middle Class –Investment –Government Economic Freedom & Rule of Law Governability and Veto Points –Culture Trust & Behavior 2050 Success and Failure

Today’s World

2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

History Source: FMAM Post-it notes 1974 ATM machines 1974 Liposuction 1975 Push thru drink tabs 1975 Laser printer 1976 VHS 1976 “Breakout” video game 1977 MRI 1978 VisiCalc spreadsheet 1979 Cellphone 1979 Walkman 1979 Rollerblades 1981 IBM PC 1981 MTV 1984 Apple Macintosh 1985 Microsoft Windows 1985 CDs 1987 Disposable contacts 1988 Prozac 1989 Iron Curtain Falls 1990 Internet 1991 Digital camera 1993 DVD 1994 Sony Playstation 1994 GPS 1998 Viagra 2001 iPod /11 Attacks 2001 TSA introduced 2001 Polaroid bankrupt 2002 PowerPoint 2003 Prius 2004 Facebook 2005 YouTube 2007 iPhone 2008 Personal DNA kit 2012 Kodak bankrupt

History: Limits to Growth – Club of Rome 1972

The GUM Department Store 1991… and 2002 History

China…the Country

History $192 $1791 $686

12 Economic Growth in Frontier & Emerging Economies is High Source: IMF, Jan 2012 GDP Growth

2050 Hindsight Source: Bank for International Settlements, “The Future of Public Debt”, March 2010

2050 Hindsight Where are we… where were we? Growth Drivers –Human Capital Demographics Education, Innovation, Wages Middle Class –Investment –Government Economic Freedom & Rule of Law Governability and Veto Points –Culture Trust & Behavior 2050 Success and Failure

Human Capital Bangladesh: Population 150 million 81,508 primary schools 16.5 million students 361,000 teachers (43% female) student teacher ratio of 46. Photo: Frontier Market Asset Management, 2010

Demographics

Demographics - Favor the Poor Countries.

Demographics – China versus India Today Source: United Nations Population Prospects, 2009

Demographics – China versus India in 2050 Source: United Nations Population Prospects, 2009

Demographics: Japan – Now & 2050

Demographics: U.S. – Now & 2050

Demographics: Nigeria – Now & 2050

Demographics: Russia – Now & 2050

% Young Rebels