Green Financing: Carbon Markets 2011 US-China Green Development Symposium Bruce Usher Executive-in-Residence Co-Director, Social Enterprise Program Columbia Business School, New York City June 10, 2011
Columbia Business School A negative externality occurs when a decision has costs to individuals or groups other than those making the decision. In other words, the decision-maker does not bear all of the costs from his or her own action. This will result in an outcome that is not socially optimal. Climate Change: Defining the Problem 2
Columbia Business School Carbon Markets: The Kyoto Protocol (2001) 3
Columbia Business School 4 Carbon Markets: The EU Emissions Trading System (2005) (EUAs) EU (-8%) EU ETS UK GermanyhFranceSpain … Utility AUtility BUtility CUtility D …
Columbia Business School 5 Carbon Markets: Linking the EU Emissions Trading System and the Kyoto Protocol (2005) (EUAs) EU (-8%) EU ETS UK GermanyhFranceSpain … Utility AUtility BUtility CUtility D … Linking Directive
Columbia Business School Yes! 6 Carbon Markets: Success of the CDM
Columbia Business School 7 Carbon Markets: Success of the EU ETS Growth in trading Volumes EU ETS emission permits–Jan 2005 to Oct 2007 Source: Point Carbon
Columbia Business School Lessons Learned from the CDM and EU ETS Carbon Markets? 8
Columbia Business School CDM Lesson #1: Markets change behavior 9
Columbia Business School CDM Lesson #2: Contract integrity is critical Credit Buyer eg European Utility “Focal Point” Renewable Energy Project eg Chinese Wind Developer System Administrator eg CDM Executive Board Verifier eg Swiss auditor $ CreditsProject audit Verification Report 10
Columbia Business School Yes! Oh no… 11 CDM Lesson #3: Markets require stable, long-term policies
Columbia Business School 12 CDM Lesson #4: Markets need to be efficient
Columbia Business School EU ETS Lesson #1: Long-term policies change investment patterns 13
Columbia Business School 14 EU ETS Lesson #2: Linking markets increases liquidity
Columbia Business School What is the Future of Carbon Markets? 15
Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: EU ETS has long-term support 16
Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: CDM has the Linking Directive 17
Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: US has no support 18
Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: Predictions EU ETS will remain stable through 2020, with modestly increasing trading volume Kyoto Protocol will not be extended past 2012, but CDM market will remain in place past 2012, with stable to lower trading volumes US carbon market will not develop until after 2014 at the earliest 19
Green Financing: Carbon Markets 2011 US-China Green Development Symposium Bruce Usher Executive-in-Residence Co-Director, Social Enterprise Program Columbia Business School, New York City June 10, 2011