International trends in forest products demand: Is there convergence? Joseph Buongiorno University of Wisconsin-Madison Acknowledgments: Hiroko Kando USFS-Southern Station
Background Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) calibration Previous studies (income, productivity, consumption) “Slow convergence” (Bourguignon & Morrison 2002, Ball et al. 2004) “Convergence, period” (Sala-i-Martin 2006) “Convergence, fails” (Romer 1994) “Divergence, big time” (Prichett 1997) Objective Wood products consumption convergence?
Material and methods c= consumption per capita i=country t=year Sigma convergence 1: Coef. of variation
Sigma convergence 2: S= share i=country t=year
Beta convergence 1: r c =growth rate consumption / capita c= level consumption / capita H0: β <0
Beta convergence 2: r c =growth rate of consumption per capita c= level of consumption per capita r y =growth rate of income per capita H0: β 0.
Population weighted least squares
Sawnwood Veneer & plywood Particle board Fiber board News print Printing & writing paper Other paper& paperboard Algeriaxxxxx Argentinaxxxx Austriaxxxxxxx Brazilxxxxxx … Finlandxxxxxxx Francexxxxxxx … Norwayxxxxxxx … United Statesxxxxxxx Uruguayxxxx Venezuelax xxx Total PANEL DATA
Sigma convergence: Solid wood products
Sigma convergence: Paper and paperboard
Coef. R2R2 R2R2 Sawnwoodlnc0.023** **0.28 gygy 0.26 Veneer & plywoodlnc-0.052** **0.78 gygy 0.959** Particleboardlnc *0.62 gygy 3.126** Fiberboardlnc-0.013** **0.91 gygy 1.64** Newsprintlnc-0.022** **0.86 gygy 1.146** Printing & writing paperlnc-0.014** **0.52 gygy Other paper & paperboardlnc-0.005* **0.55 gygy 0.347** Beta convergence
Beta convergence: solid wood
Beta convergence: Paper & paperboard
ProductCV y CV c CV y CV c Predicted CV c Sawnwood Plywood Particleboard Fiberboard Newsprint Printing & writing paper Other paper & paperboard Convergence Consumption vs. Income (% yr -1 )
Summary Convergence Acceleration Saturation Independent of income Further work Sawnwood? Integration in forecasting models Causes: trade, globalization?