T EMPERATURE /P RECIPITATION O UTLOOK Outlook for June is for Above Normal temperature and Normal precipitation probability.

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Presentation transcript:

T EMPERATURE /P RECIPITATION O UTLOOK Outlook for June is for Above Normal temperature and Normal precipitation probability

D ROUGHT The current Drought Monitor indicates that drought conditions range from Moderate to Severe for Colorado River District BLM The Drought Outlook for Central Arizona shows that drought conditions will persist or intensify through June

L IVE F UEL M OISTURE

D EAD F UEL M OISTURE Dead Fuel Moisture is the moisture content of dead organic fuels that is controlled entirely by exposure to environmental conditions. There are four fuel classes modeled within NFDRS. 1-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels less than ¼” in diameter. Very responsive to current conditions (temperature, humidity, precipitation). Value range: % 10-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from ¼” to 1” in diameter. Responsive to daily changes in weather. Value range: % 100-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from 1” to 3” in diameter. As opposed to 1 & 10-Hour, these fuels are impacted by 24-hour trends (Max/Min Temp, Max/Min RH, precipitation duration). Value range: % 1000-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from 3” to 8” in diameter. Value is based on running 7-day average. Impacted by 24-hour Max/Min Temp, Max/Min RH and precipitation duration values for a 7-day period. Value range: %

CRD HR FM 1000-Hour Fuel Moisture is below average and has reached the 10 th Percentile

E NERGY R ELEASE C OMPONENT The Energy Release Component is a number related to the available energy within the flaming front at the head of a fire. Daily variations in ERC are due to changes in the moisture content of the fuels present, both live and dead. As live fuels cure and larger dead fuels dry, ERC values get higher. The 1000-hr Fuel Moisture is one of the primary inputs into the ERC calculation and as such, 24-hour Max/Min Temperature, Max/Min RH and Precipitation Duration all affect the calculation. Since wind and fine fuel moisture do not affect the ERC calculation, the daily variation is relatively small. The ERC scale is open-ended or unlimited and is heavily dependent on the fuel model that is being used. Historically on the Prescott NF, the highest ERC values in the G fuel model have been around 110, while the highest ERC values in the B fuel model have been around 150.

CRD ERC V ALUES /T REND ERC is above average and has exceeded the 97 th Percentile

K INGMAN P RECIPITATION Total of 0.85” recorded at Union Pass since January 1

Y UMA P RECIPITATION Total of 0.10” recorded at Fort Yuma since January 1

19 Fires 0 Lightning Caused Fire Size Class: D+ 0 Fire Size Class: ABC 0 19 Human Caused Fire Size Class: D+ 0 Fire Size Class: ABC 19 Fires - 18 Acres Fire Size Class A: B: C: D: E: F: G: CRD F IRE A CTIVITY

F IRE P OTENTIAL O UTLOOK