Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn/Biofuels Outlook Aug. 10, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)12,36010,75513,82914,21613,686 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1, ,2321,772 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,51711,90414,68615,47715,488 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,5574,3155,0345,300 Ethanol(mil. bu.)5,0004,6415,1345,2005,250 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,4281,3971,3691,3551,375 Exports(mil. bu.)1, ,9171,850 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,52811,08313,45413,70513,775 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) ,2321,7721,713 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Good to Excellent Ratings Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 2, 2015 Nationwide, 70% of the corn crop is rated Good to Excellent Last year, 73%

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 yield estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production Source: EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use Production(mil. metric tons) Imports(mil. metric tons) Total Supply(mil. metric tons) Domestic(mil. metric tons) Exports(mil. metric tons) Total Use(mil. metric tons) Price($ per ton) Source: USDA-ERS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports to China Source: USDA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 8/10/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Market was debating whether this year’s rain makes grain  USDA indicates it does  Exports retreating  Negative margins for crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 USDA 2015/16 Futures (8/10/15) 2016/17 Futures (8/10/15) Corn$3.70$3.65$3.80$3.91 Soybeans$10.05$9.15$9.45$8.99

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: