SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Arctic Ozone Possible Reduction Strategies What can be done given uncertanties in the (Arctic) O 3 budget and climate change?

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Air Pollution and Climate

Advertisements

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

MODELING TRANSPORT OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICLES TO AND FROM NORTH AMERICA Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University with Arlene M. Fiore, Rokjin Park, Colette.

CO budget and variability over the U.S. using the WRF-Chem regional model Anne Boynard, Gabriele Pfister, David Edwards National Center for Atmospheric.

QUESTIONS 1.Is hexane more or less reactive with OH than propane? 2.Is pentene or isoprene more reactive with OH?

Hydrogen Scenario Impacts on Global Climate and Air Pollution Martin G. Schultz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, Germany.

Seasonal Variations in the Mixing Layer in the UTLS Dave MacKenzie University of Toronto GEOS-Chem Meeting April 2009.

Effect of global change on ozone air quality in the United States Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Eric Leibensperger, David Rind.

Modification of the chemical environment during long-range transport M. Auvray & I. Bey GEOS-CHEM Meeting – April 2005 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology,

Interactions Among Air Quality and Climate Policies: Lectures 7 and 8 (abridged versions)

THE ATMOSPHERE: OXIDIZING MEDIUM IN GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants Workshop USEPA/OAQPS.

SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS.

This Week—Tropospheric Chemistry READING: Chapter 11 of text Tropospheric Chemistry Data Set Analysis.

Sensitivity of U.S. Surface Ozone to Isoprene Emissions & Chemistry: An Application of the 1°x1 ° North American Nested GEOS-CHEM Model GEOS-CHEM Model.

HTAP Multi-model Assessment of Ozone Source-receptor Relationships 3 rd GEOS-Chem Users’ Meeting, Harvard University April 13, 2007 Arlene M. Fiore

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY: FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK Daniel J. Jacob.

Impact of Mexico City on Regional Air Quality Louisa Emmons Jean-François Lamarque NCAR/ACD.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTION WITH GMI AND PLANS FOR THE NEW HEMISPHERIC TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS (HTAP) MODEL INTERCOMPARISON STUDY ROKJIN.

Hemispheric Transport of Ozone Pollution: Multi-model Assessment of the Role of Methane and the Conventional Ozone Precursors Quadrennial Ozone Symposium,

FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK: Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate change Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University.

Trace Gas Measurements in India S. Lal Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India Indo-US Workshop Chennai July 12-16, 2006.

Impact of Short-Lived Pollutants on Arctic Climate (SPAC) Background and Progress Since January 2007 GISS Meeting SPAC Workshop, November 5 – 7, 2007 Oslo,

Observational Evidence: Ozone and Particulate Matter EMEP SB, 13 September summary Chapter 2 Kathy Law LATMOS-CNRS,

ASSESSING INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT OF OZONE AND AEROSOLS AT NORTHERN MID-LATITUDES WITH GMI Daniel J. Jacob, Rokjin J. Park, Shiliang Wu, Colette L.

Background Ozone in Surface Air: Origin, Variability, and Policy Implications Arlene M. Fiore Goddard Institute for Space Studies May 20, 2005.

Improved representation of boreal fire emissions for the ICARTT period S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, R. C. Hudman, F. Y. Leung,

Metrics for quantification of influence on climate Ayite-Lo Ajovan, Paul Newman, John Pyle, A.R. Ravishankara Co-Chairs, Science Assessment Panel July.

R C Hudman, D J Jacob, S Turquety, L Murray, S Wu, Q Liang,A Gilliland, M Avery, T H Bertram, E Browell, W Brune, R C Cohen, J E Dibb, F M Flocke, J Holloway,

TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AND OXIDANT CHEMISTRY Troposphere Stratosphere: 90% of total The many faces of atmospheric ozone: In stratosphere: UV shield In middle/upper.

Human fingerprints on our changing climate Neil Leary Changing Planet Study Group June 28 – July 1, 2011 Cooling the Liberal Arts Curriculum A NASA-GCCE.

The effect of pyro-convective fires on the global troposphere: comparison of TOMCAT modelled fields with observations from ICARTT Sarah Monks Outline:

QUESTIONS 1.Is hexane more or less reactive with OH than propane? 2.Is pentene or isoprene more reactive with OH? 3.Using the EKMA diagram (the ozone isopleth.

QUESTIONS 1. How does the thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer affect the source of OH in the troposphere? 2. Chemical production of ozone in the.

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

MOZART Development, Evaluation, and Applications at GFDL MOZART Users’ Meeting August 17, 2005 Boulder, CO Arlene M. Fiore Larry W. Horowitz

Hemispheric transport of ozone pollution and the nonlinearities GMI meeting UC Irvine March 17, 2008 Shiliang Wu, Harvard Bryan Duncan, NASA / GSFC Arlene.

Estimating background ozone in surface air over the United States with global 3-D models of tropospheric chemistry Description, Evaluation, and Results.

Overlaps of AQ and climate policy – global modelling perspectives David Stevenson Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Science School of GeoSciences.

REGIONAL/GLOBAL INTERACTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY Greenhouse gases Halocarbons Ozone Aerosols Acids Nutrients Toxics SOURCE CONTINENT REGIONAL ISSUES:

Arctic pollution from Fires

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR QUALITY : part I: Intercontinental transport and climatic effects of pollutants OBJECTIVE: Define a near-term (-2003)

TF HTAP Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution TF HTAP Workshop, Washington, DC, June 10, 2008 Arlene.

The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria January 28, 2003 ANIMALS 90 LANDFILLS 50 GAS 60 COAL 40 RICE 85 TERMITES.

F.J. Dentener, C. Cuvelier, M.G. Schultz, O. Wild, T.J. Keating, A. Zuber, S. Wu, C. Textor, M. Schulz, C. Atherton, D.Bergmann, I. Bey, G. Carmichael,

ORIGIN OF BACKGROUND OZONE IN SURFACE AIR OVER THE UNITED STATES: CONTRIBUTION TO POLLUTION EPISODES Daniel J. Jacob and Arlene M. Fiore Atmospheric Chemistry.

Background ozone in surface air over the United States Arlene M. Fiore Daniel J. Jacob US EPA Workshop on Developing Criteria for the Chemistry and Physics.

Why care about methane Daniel J. Jacob. Global present-day budget of atmospheric methane Wetlands: 160 Fires: 20 Livestock: 110 Rice: 40 Oil/Gas: 70 Coal:

TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AS A CLIMATE GAS AND AIR POLLUTANT: THE CASE FOR CONTROLLING METHANE Daniel J. Jacob with Loretta J. Mickley, Arlene M. Fiore, Yaping.

Discussion with NAS ITAP Committee

Yuqiang Zhang1, Owen R, Cooper2,3, J. Jason West1

Linking regional air pollution with global chemistry and climate:

Reducing tropospheric ozone with methane controls:

Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

Distribution and Trends: Impacts on Climate and Ozone Air Quality

Preliminary Ozone Results from the TF HTAP Model Intercomparison

The Double Dividend of Methane Control

Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

Global atmospheric changes and future impacts on regional air quality

Linking global scale and European scale modelling:

Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution,

Linking Ozone Pollution and Climate Change:

SCALE ISSUES IN MODELING INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT

Global Change Welcome Meeting, Edinburgh, October 15th 2010

AIR POLLUTION AND GLOBAL CHANGE: TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED POLICY

Questions for consideration

Effects of global change on U.S. ozone air quality

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Presentation transcript:

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Arctic Ozone Possible Reduction Strategies What can be done given uncertanties in the (Arctic) O 3 budget and climate change? Kathy Law Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRS

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Outline O 3 radiative forcing - IR altitude sensitivity O 3 radiative forcing - IR altitude sensitivity O 3 budget (Arctic & NH) - uncertainties - photochemical lifetime vs transport timescales O 3 budget (Arctic & NH) - uncertainties - photochemical lifetime vs transport timescales Which emissions? Which emissions? Regions Regions NOx, CO/VOCs or CH4? NOx, CO/VOCs or CH4? Response in a changing climate (O3, CH4) Response in a changing climate (O3, CH4)

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 O 3 radiative forcing Max effect on Ts from IR heating between km Surface ∆O3 less important From Forster & Shine, 1997

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Uncertainties in O 3 RF: Results from IPCC models - GHGs plus strat. O3 (Gauss et al., 2006) Results from IPCC models - GHGs plus strat. O3 (Gauss et al., 2006) Strat. vs trop. model differences (1850 to 2000) Strat. vs trop. model differences (1850 to 2000) T=trop, S=strat.

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Arctic Ozone Budget North PoleSTE UT Transport LT transport Dry Deposition Flux out Flux in Residence Time

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Arctic O 3 Budget (TOPSE) Emmons et al., 2003

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Transport Pathways to Arctic Winter: anthrop. Europe (LT), Asia? (UT) Summer: forest fires (Siberia, Alaska) anthrop. (Asia, N. America) AMAP, 2006

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Age of Arctic Air Stohl, 2006

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Ozone Photochemical Lifetime (days) Lifetime - April - Surface Lifetime - April - 500hPaLifetime - July - 500hPa Lifetime - July - Surface MOZART model results, courtesy Claire Granier (CNRS), NCAR

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Northern Hemisphere O 3 Budget North Pole Brewer-Dobson/STE Local heating from local O 3 30N Dry Deposition Transport of heat or mid-lat O 3 to Arctic 30N

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Key is UT O 3 Budget North Pole Brewer-Dobson/STE Local heating from local O 3 ? 30N Dry Deposition Transport of heat or mid-lat O 3 to Arctic 30N

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Tropospheric O 3 - where is the ∆O 3 ?

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Mid-lat anthrop. plumes transported into UT Lagrangian study using NARE-ACSOE data (Real et al., 2007) Photochemical trajectory model initialised with obs upwind Determine O3 change due to chemistry, mixing etc.

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Intercontinental Transport Of Pollutants Lagrangian match analysis (Methven et al.,2006), FF analysis (Real et al., 2007) CO ↓ : 200 ppbv O3 ↑ : 20 ppbv DC8 – 18 July B146 – 20 July Falcon – 22/23 July Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Boreal Forest Fire plumes (ICARTT summer 2004) IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 - ITOP campaign, July 2004

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Lagrangian photochemical model: chemistry + aerosols + dilution (Real et al., 2007) NPO 3 depends on altitude (PAN decomp. vs H 2 O) plus mixing & residence time of plumes in UT OHP Falcon Mozaic Jungfraujoch Chemistry only (inc. aerosols) Chemistry + mixing

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Forest Fire Plume - Trace Gas Correlation Evolution CO (ppbv) O3 (ppbv) DC July 2004BAe July 2004 Falcon – 22 et 23 July 2004

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Forest Fire Plume Correlation Evolution - evaluation of global models - MOCAGE (Bousserez et al., 2007) and GEOSCHEM (courtesy Isabelle Bey) MOCAGE Observations GEOS-CHEM MOCAGE O3 too high on 18 July GEOSCHEM CO (PAN) too low on 18 July O3 too low on 23 July CO (ppb) O3 (ppbv) DC8 18 July DF20 23 July DC8 18 July 45

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Forest Fire Plume Transport to Arctic (ICARTT 2004) Barrow Alert 80°N 90°N Stohl, 2006

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 FF plume transport to the Arctic (Lacresson, Real, Law, 2007) Ny-Alesund Summit Ozone - Ny-Alesund (Rao et al, 2004 ) 8km 6km 2km 3km 2004 Ny-Alesund surface: high O3 episode in July 2004 Ozone Data (Helmig et al, 2007 ) Broad summer Max in FT

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 AMAP, 2006 So which regional emissions to reduce?

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Uncertainties in Regional Emissions Courtesy Claire Granier et al.

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Decadal emissions - up to date info is needed on 1990 to present Courtesy Claire Granier, Cathy Liousse et al.

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Regional O 3 changes from reduced emissions (1) Bernsten et al., 2006

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Regional O 3 changes from reduced emissions (2) Dentener et al., 2005

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 O 3 RF from BAU (upper) & reduced emissions (lower) Dentener et al., 2005

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Stohl, Anthrop BC particle sources 30 days previously Air spending at least 5 days in Arctic in winter (left) & summer (right) Do the same for O 3 precursors with some kind of RF clock related to residence time in the UT

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Stohl, BC particle sources 30 days previously Air spending at least 5 days in Arctic in summer - forest fires (left) & anthrop (right)

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Which Emissions - CH4, NOx, VOC or CO? 20% emission reductions in CH4, NOx CO & VOCs (West, Fiore, et al 2007)

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 CH 4 emission scenarios (Tg yr-1) - Dentener et al., 2005 Net difference BAU - MRF ∆CH4ems = 100 Tg (1990 to 2030)

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 How to reduce CH4? Law & Nisbet, 1996 Reduction in Gas CH4 by 15 Tg over 3 years led to 4 ppbv yr-1 66N

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 But is CH 4 already going down? … and CO 2 going up faster than predicted?? Hansen et al., 2007

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Stratospheric O 3 recovery Eyring et al., 2007

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Climate Change Possible Impacts on O 3 Budget

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Climate change effects on strat. & trop. O3 Gauss et al., 2006

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Sensitivity of PO 3 to Temperature (PAN decomposition) Real et al., 2007

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 More local anthropogenic emissions? Gas/oil extraction - CH 4, VOCs (alkanes), BC? Gas/oil extraction - CH 4, VOCs (alkanes), BC? Smelters (copper) - SOx, NOx, aerosol Smelters (copper) - SOx, NOx, aerosol Ships - NOx, aerosols Ships - NOx, aerosols

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Loss of summer sea-ice  more O 3 (ships), less halogens (not clear), more DMS, etc 2040 Granier et al, 2006 Holland et al, 2006 Are the models right??!!

SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Recommendations Reduce CH 4 (but need to understand current trends and climate sensitivity) - plus CO 2 also of course Reduce CH 4 (but need to understand current trends and climate sensitivity) - plus CO 2 also of course Take into account planned O 3 precursor emission reductions (CLRTAP) & post- Kyoto Take into account planned O 3 precursor emission reductions (CLRTAP) & post- Kyoto O 3 budget - important where O 3 is formed O 3 budget - important where O 3 is formed (smoking gun - boreal forest fires?)