Health Expenditures, Longevity and Growth by B. Dormont, J. Oliveira Martins, F. Pelgrin and M. Suhrcke Discussant: V. Galasso.

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Presentation transcript:

Health Expenditures, Longevity and Growth by B. Dormont, J. Oliveira Martins, F. Pelgrin and M. Suhrcke Discussant: V. Galasso

Health Spending and Growth: A Virtuous Circle? Health Spending Medical Innovation R&D Productivity Economic Growth Health Status & Longevity Labor Force Income

Too Good to be True? What drives Health Care Spending? Does Health Spending lead to better Health & higher Longevity? Longevity and Labor Force Income and Health Care Spending

What drives Health Care Spending? Aging  …..not quite  “proximity to death” spending

“Proximity to death” spending

What drives Health Care Spending? Aging Increase in Medical practices for given morbidity  treatment expansion  quality-adjusted prices do not raise much Why?  Institutional Factors: Introduction of Medicare and Medicaid in the 60s  Pension annuities increase the value of longevity (Philipson and Becker, JPE 1998)

Public and Private Health Spending

Does Health Spending lead to better Health & higher Longevity? The report: Yes!  Increase in Longevity  Compression of Morbidity Healthy Aging Too Optimistic View?

How do Elderly people die?

Health Spending & Longevity Medical improvements (prevention, drugs, acute management) explain from 50% to 2/3 of cardiovascular mortality reduction. Competing explanation: People have modified their Health Behavior  Reduction of smoking  Diet & Exercise Larger reduction in mortality among educated people: the Health Gradient

Health Spending & Healthy Aging Healthy Aging for everyone?  Not quite!

Healthy and Rich

Health Spending & Healthy Aging Healthy Aging for everyone?  Not quite! Do rich (or high educated) individuals have better access to medical care? Or do they have a different health behavior?

From Health & Longevity to Growth Some virtuous channels:  Updating participation rate (and retirement age) with longevity gains increases the labor force  Higher longevity as an incentive to accumulate human capital  R&D from Medical Innovation to Growth.

Longevity & Retirement Old Age Dependency Ratio Effective Retirement Age Pension Dependency Ratio Required Retirem ent Age Country France Germany Italy Spain UK US

Longevity and Retirement:  Large increase in retirement age is required  Health Gradient….again!  What about the labor demand? From Health & Longevity to Growth

Healthy and Rich

Longevity and Retirement:  Large increase in retirement age is required  Health Gradient….again!  What about the labor demand? R&D from Medical Innovation to Growth.  The role of market structure.  Is the domestic market what matters? From Health & Longevity to Growth

Income and Health Care  Is Health Care a superior good?  Not quite: unitary elasticity on cross-country regression  Projections on Health Spending use: Demographic determinants Income Residual Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets From Growth to More Health Care?