The Post-Cold War Era And the Global War on Terror.

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Presentation transcript:

The Post-Cold War Era And the Global War on Terror

THE PROBLEM How to conceptualize the connection between the global arena and U.S.-Latin American relations in the wake of the Cold War? And then 9/11? Widespread view: little if any connection My contention: the connection exists but is complex and contradictory

READINGS Smith, Talons, chs DFC, Contemporary, chs. 1, 3

After the Cold War: The Global Arena 1. Collapse of the Soviet Union 2. U.S. military primacy: the “unipolar moment” 3. “The End of History”? 4. Transnationalization and non-state actors 5. Process of “globalization” 6. Shift from geo-politics to “geo-economics” 7. Economic multipolarity: Europe, Japan, others?

BUSH AND THE WAR ON TERROR PHASE 1: BEFORE 9/11  High level of presidential interest  Relationship with Mexico  (and Vicente Fox)  Near-agreement on immigration reform (?)  Support for FTAA  Administrative team  Isolation of Cuba PHASE 2: AFTER 9/11  Change in regional priorities  Unilateralist impulses  End of wholesale immigration reform

RESPONSES FROM LATIN AMERICA Broad sympathy; scores of own citizens Occasional satisfaction OAS support for action “as appropriate” Appeals for proportionality Fidel Castro: against terrorism and against war Preferred option: the sidelines Entanglements at the UN

GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR: THE RULES OF THE GAME 1. Nations can respond however they choose—including the use of indiscriminate force. 2. Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable. 3. There is no need to adhere to international treaties or conventions. 4. Alliances are formed around one central issue—the anti-terror campaign under U.S. leadership. Support is black-white. Democracy and human rights are secondary issues. 5. Spectator nations must tread cautiously.

U.S. LOSS OF “SOFT POWER”

U.S. PRESTIGE IN LATIN AMERICA

CHANGING VIEWS OF U.S. Distaste for Abu Ghraib, Haditha, “collateral damage” and loss of life Solidarity with innocent civilians, hidden admiration for Osama bin Laden Rejection of American society, not just U.S. foreign policy Resentment of unilateral approach Distrust of “democratic crusade”

TWO-LEVEL GAMES Geo-economic game + new geopolitical game, superimposed and simultaneous Geopolitics > geo-economics if necessary  Low priority for region  Benefits of inattention (benign neglect?)  National preferences: which game to play? Examples:  FTAs on basis of geopolitics  Reluctance on immigration reform  Allies in wars on drugs Contradictions and trade-offs

…AND BARACK OBAMA? Redefinition of war against terror  Afghanistan > Iraq  Al Qaeda ≠ Taliban  Rules of game more subtly applied  ISIS/Islamic State Re Latin America, changes in rhetoric and emphasis rather than substance  Immigration  Drugs and drug trafficking  FTAs  Lingering effects