JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL Jeff Tsao Physical, Chemical and Nano Sciences Center Sandia National Laboratories Some Simple Physics of Global Warming

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Controversy, complexity, and uncertainty

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Topics The Earth's Delicate Heat Balance Earth’s Temperature History The Earth's Sluggish Carbon Balance Humanity's Appetite for Energy and Carbon What Can We Do?

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Earth’s Delicate Heat Balance

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Simple calculation of the earth’s temperature Power radiating from the earth Power radiating from the sun Fraction of power that intercepts the earth Stefan’s Law Actual Predicted(Stockholm) (Albuquerque)

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April H 2 O: Ice, Clouds, Water Vapor Adapted from Reflection from the surface (including ice and snow) Reflection from clouds Absorption by clouds Emission by clouds Absorption by water vapor

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Greenhouse gases Oxygen Nitrogen % of earth’s atmosphere Adapted from

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Earth’s Temperature History

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April The 450,000-year temperature history Approximate average earth temperature (°C) Adapted from

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April The 1,000-year temperature and CO 2 history National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( The evaporation rate of the rare, heavy 18 O isotope of H 2 O is slower than that of the common, light 16 O isotope of H 2 O, and depends on temperature ov/lb/worldbook/w bkids/k_evaporati on.html Adapted from museum.org/exhibitgcc/images/historical03.gif (°F) (ppm)

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Earth’s Sluggish Carbon Balance

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Earth’s carbon sources and sinks IPCC4 Figure 7.3 C deep-ocean τ ~ 100 years c biosph j anthro Pre-1900’s: C biosph = c deep-ocean 1900’s-2000’s: C biosph > c deep-ocean Post-2000’s?: C biosph > c deep-ocean Post-2100’s?: C biosph = c deep-ocean

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April The earth’s response to C emission scenarios

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Humanity’s Appetite for Energy and Carbon

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April The “IPAT” Relationship Ė (10 12 W) 13.5 TW 43 TW Ė = (GDP/N) · N · (Ė/GDP) per capita Gross Domestic Product Popu- lation Impact = Affluence · Population · Technology Energy Intensity Energy Consump- tion Rate 11 Bper 6.1 Bper 5,000 US$ 25,000 US$ 0.45 W/($/yr) 0.15 W/($/yr) Adapted from M.I. Hoffert, K. Caldeira, A.K. Jain, E.F. Haites, L.D.D. Harvey, S.D. Potter, M.E. Schlesinger, S.H. Schneider, R.G. Watts, T.M.L. Wigley, and D.J. Wuebbles, "Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content," Nature 395, (Oct 1998)

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April The sluggish decrease in carbon intensity 0.3 GtC/(TW-yr) 0.49 GtC/(TW-yr) Adapted from M.I. Hoffert, K. Caldeira, A.K. Jain, E.F. Haites, L.D.D. Harvey, S.D. Potter, M.E. Schlesinger, S.H. Schneider, R.G. Watts, T.M.L. Wigley, and D.J. Wuebbles, "Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content," Nature 395, (Oct 1998)

JY Tsao ∙ Some Simple Physics of Global Warming ∙ 2008 April Plan A: Sequester the Carbon Plan B: Switch to Non-Fossil Fuels –E.g., there is plenty of solar (an area the size of Venezuela could power the world) –But not economical yet, so need R&D and carbon tax –But a carbon tax could be a drag on GDP, unless it substitutes for income tax Plan C: Climate Engineering –Global gardening, atmospheric water/ice nucleation, earth albedo manipulation, … Plan D: Adapt to global warming –Developed nations are the cause, but undeveloped countries are least able to afford to adapt –What is the cost of adapting, and who should pay? What can we do?