Developing Tools for Understanding and Communicating Drought Deke Arndt Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Two Things I Can Guarantee This drought will end There will be another drought

About the Oklahoma Climate Survey Established: 1980 Mandated to collect and disseminate useful weather and climate information OCS is also the custodian of the Oklahoma Mesonet For drought, we serve data and expertise to the Oklahoma Water Resources Board The OWRB is the lead drought-monitoring agency in the state. They report directly to the Gov.

About Oklahoma Response-based drought plan → Monitoring is critical

About Drought Climate information maps strongly to the financial services sector Drought is more like baseball  There are a lot of numbers, statistics and metrics  It means more because I went through it with my Dad.

A Tale of Two Droughts

Drought #1: 1935

Drought #2: 1996

Lessons: Drought #1 The power of mitigation CD2 Annual Precip “Dust Bowl” 1950s

Lessons: Drought #2 We didn't speak to each other very well Climatologists spent days compiling reports Stuff happened slowly

Deke's Drought-Monitoring Principles 1.Drought is a social phenomenon 2.Drought is relative in time, space & application 3.Because drought is inextricably tied to society, a long-term reference is necessary 4.New and emerging observational datasets should be explored 5.Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment 6.Deliver drought information, not just drought data

Mesonet & Drought Monitoring Tables and graphics provide decision- makers with a number of data sources and choices (7 days per week)‏ Designed to help non-scientists better assimilate complex information using past experiences

Daily Drought Monitoring

Fire Danger Model Burning Index

Time/Depth Scales of Soil Moisture Fractional Water Index at 75 cm — Ending 10/12/03

Daily Drought Monitoring Basic statistics for a “traditional” view of precipitation during any season Total Precipitation Departure from Normal Precipitation Percent of Normal Precipitation

Daily Drought Monitoring These columns use historical archives to put this season's total in perspective “Driest Since” and “Wettest Since” refer to recent history (which is more memorable)‏ Rankings indicate how ‘this season’ fits into history

Daily Drought Monitoring Index values help specific users see the subtext of the current episode Implications: FWI: agriculture KBDI: fire management SPI: the unusualness of a current event

Texas: Early Last Week Updated daily at OCS. Not ready for prime time Will be handed off in a few months to the Southern Regional Climate Center

Water Issues Water is a contentious issue Texas has more people than Oklahoma

How does it fit in?

South-Central Texas

Annual Precipitation

Spring Precip: TX-CD7

Summer Precip: TX-CD7

TX: CD7 Temperature

TX CD3 Annual Temp

Climate “Time Series” Available on demand (give me a call)‏ I am confident these will be more accessible in the not-too-distant future

Thank You for Your Time Deke Arndt Oklahoma Climatological Survey