Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014 James G. Robb Director
USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU NWFCS 28 Land Grant Universities:
Topics: Price Drivers and … Perspective on Cattle Prices Beef Demand –Domestic –Foreign Markets Feedstuffs Backdrop A Few Comments on Poultry and Pork More on Cattle Markets –U.S. Cattle Inventory –Cost and Return Prospects Time to Plan is Now USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts – LMIC
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
International Trade Perspective
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Feedstuffs -- Corn
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Poultry and Pork
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Cattle
BEEF COWS THAT CALVED JANUARY 1, 2014 (1000 Head) U.S. Total: Data Source: USDA-NASS
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014 (1000 Head) U.S. Total: -255 Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Latest Data: August 2014
Economic Environment: Cow/Calf Plan Now Domestic Consumer Beef Demand Has Improved Foreign Beef Demand Surprisingly Strong Chicken and Pork Output Ramping-Up Controls Already Set to Reduced Beef Output Throughout 2015 Cattle Price Peak on the Horizon: 2015, 2016, or 2017? Mistakes Are Costly, Sound Business Practices Required Feedstuff Costs Down But Still High – Forage is Valuable Time To Plan is Now! Estimate Income Visit with Tax Professional Develop Alternatives and Evaluate Ranch ROI
Taxes Captive Supply Packer Ban CWT QE II OIE Imports Oil Price BEV CFTC APA Free Trade Agreements QSA Farm Bill RFS Immigration Legislation FoodPrices LRP Risk Mgmt Cost of Production Ethanol Exchange Rate Food Safety Horse Harvesting GE Animals H1N1 Grades & Standards Animal Rights GIPSA- Rule Financial Regulation EPA Rules Phytosanitary Crop Insurance Formula Pricing GMO Seed ABF (Antibiotic Free) Issues, Issues, Issues…. LFTB QUALITY AMA’s i-rate Excess Capacity Beta-agonists TSC – The Sustainability Consortium Price Discovery PEDv
Thank You!