International Conference of the Czech EU Presidency « Trends in tourism employment and labour market » WILL TOURISM REMAIN A DRIVER OF EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES? Prof. Peter Keller Director, Institute for Tourism, Business and Economic Faculty (HEC), University of Lausanne (Switzerland) Prag (Czech Republic), 10 June 2009

Tourism is an experience economy whose part on total employment is higher than its part at the GDP 21th century 4th sector Experience economy 20th century 3rd sector Service economy 19th century 2nd sector Industrial revolution 18th century 1st sector Prevailing primary production

The employment of the hotel and catering business has developed similar to the employment of the industry Source: Swiss Federal Office of Statistics, 2009

The employment potential differs between tourism related industries Tourism relevant full time equivalent of employment in % Source: TSA Switzerland 2008

The below average productivity of the incoming sector reduces its competitiveness on the markets Personalisation Quality competition Cost disease Shrinking productivity and loss of competitiveness Incoming sector Outgoing sector SME’s of destinations International travel industry Standardisation Price competition Increasing productivity by cutting labour costs Low margins

Foreign employees compensate the lack of personal in the more or less regulated hotel and restaurant labour market Real salary (w) Employment (L) D 0(f) L(f) w(f) Real salary (w) Employment (L) 0(o) D w(o) L(o) Closed labour marketOpen labour marketRegulated labour market for foreigners Real salary (w) 0(c) D Employment(L) L(c) w(c) L(max)

The increase of labour productivity leads to more attractive and better remunerated jobs Efficiency with which inputs of human capital and natural resources are used for developing services (physical aspect) Prices these services can command in a open economy by their uniqueness and their quality (monetary aspect) Service vs. self-service economy

Structures The increase of labour productivity does not only depend on education level Determinants of labour economy Higher Education Vocational Training Research & Development Learning on the job Learning at the destination Long term impact Short term impact Markets Investment

Summing up: Balance of factors which stimulate or reduce tourism employment in developed countries Factors that stimulate employment in tourism + Rise of the experience economy + Tourism’s growth potential Factors that reduce employment in tourism - Dependence on economy-wide fluctuations and crises - Productivity gap and trend to self-service economy Positive but moderate growth of employment