THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) and PRMS Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models Other components and class summary

Forecast Methodologies in MMS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Atmospheric Model Outputs Statistical Downscaling Dynamical Downscaling

MMS ESP Tool All Computed Traces using

MMS ESP Tool Manager selected 10, 50, and 90 % probability of occurrence

Developing New or Enhancing Existing Process-Model Concepts

WETLANDS MODELING APPROACHES

DEPRESSION STORAGE ESTIMATION (BY HRU) USING THE GIS WEASEL (AREA & VOLUME)

WETLANDS HYDROLOGY (1) CLOSED WETLAND STORAGE HRU FLOW  GW PET FLOW OPEN WETLAND

WETLANDS HYDROLOGY (2) UPLAND WETLAND SURFACE RUNOFF SUBSURFACE FLOW GW FLOW UPLAND PET P STORAGE

WETLANDS MODEL ADD MODULE TO PRMS STRUCTURE wetlands

PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone Streamflow Unsaturated Zone Model (Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

PRMS Remove soil2gw_max Modified

Applied at HRU scale Replaced with Modflow Applied at HRU scale Modified MMS-PRMS Application Modflow ssr2gwr T, S

PRMS With Multiple HRU/SSRs, and MODFLOW Surface Runoff Sub-Surface Runoff Ground Water Runoff } Streamflow

HRU/GW Cells

DEM/Branch

Branch/GW Cells

Nodes

Nodes to GW Cells

HRUs to Flowplanes to Nodes

MMS Model & Modules: PRMS/MODFLOW/DAFLOW MMS model xprms_mf96_daf includes the following modules: all basic PRMS modules: precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, interception, ET, snowpack, soil moisture, precipitation excess, infiltration, and interflow mf_ssr2cell: maps recharge from PRMS HRUs to MODFLOW cells daf_hru2node: maps precipitation excess and interflow to DAFLOW stream nodes mf96_daf: runs MODFLOW and DAFLOW iterating on stream stage and cell head mf962prms: maps MODFLOW, DAFLOW and PRMS output variables consistent names and unit for water balance, reports, and plotting

MMS Model & Modules: PRMS/MODFLOW/DAFLOW

Test Basin: Sagehen Creek

Results from MMS PRMS / MODFLOW / DAFLOW

SW to GW Flux Flux ’97 New Years Flood

Results from MMS PRMS / MODFLOW / DAFLOW Site 2 Site 1 GW Head Stream Stage

Results from MMS PRMS / MODFLOW / DAFLOW GW Head Site 4 Stream Stage GW Head Site 3

Results from MMS PRMS / MODFLOW / DAFLOW Observed & Predicted Streamflow Iterations & Convergence Site 1

Future MMS Development: PRMS / MODFLOW / DAFLOW MODFLOW / SWAT integration in MMS Add an unsaturated zone module (replace the sub-surface modules) Simulate soil moisture / infiltration / gw head feedback (replace the soil moisture module) Add chemistry / transport modules Add ecosystems modules

Water Quality and Ecosystem Components

PRMS_ISO R_gw R_ssr R_sm R_snpk 18 O Pools

R_sm2ssr R_sm2gw R_smelt 18 O Fluxes R_precip R_ssr2gw R_sroff R_ssflow R_gwflow R_strflow PRMS_ISO

Sleepers River, Vermont Trout Lake, Wisconsin Panola Mountain, Georgia Luquillo, Puerto Rico Loch Vale, Colorado WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM

TOP_PRMS PRMS National Weather Service - Hydro17 TOPMODEL

WEBB Program

Tracers and Flow Paths

Coupled xtop_prms and PHREEQC

Water Quality and Ecosystem Components Coupled PRMS and Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) –ARS, NRCS SWAT – MODFLOW modules –Chinese Academy Sciences, Kansas GS Vegetation growth and succession modules –WRD, BRD, GD, NMD Isotopes –International Atomic Energy Agency

USGS National Water Quality Asssessment Program (NAWQA) An Objective – Increase the use of models for improving our understanding of the causes and effects of water quality Recommend - “ NAWQA attempt to merge development in watershed based water quality models with the current Modular Modeling System.” National Research Council Report (2002) Opportunities to Improve the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program

Future Directions Framework design Additional water quality and ecosystem components Expanded DSS capabilities and applications Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty toolbox

INTEGRATED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) US Geological Survey Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany US Agricultural Research Service (ARS) US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

OMS Platform & Extensions NetBeans Platform OMS Platform “Branding” Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,… ModelCoreModelBuilderRZWQMPRMSDatabaseJava CompilerXMLTestingC++Other… Extension Modules

OMS Integration and Support UDDI Registry Directory of simulation services OMS Central Support Research Units Dict OMS Appserver OMS RT OMS Runtime Cluster ITC Web Farm Portal DB Portal Lighthouse AppServer/ Infrastructure Data Gateway Research Dictionary OMS Central Support ITC Production Dictionary OMS Development & Maintenance OMS Dev Deployment OMS RT Deployment Implementation Training Peer review, Verification, Approval Component development Science Field Offices Model Deployment Review Approval Staging Testing Dict RT Deployment Development System Deployment Data warehouse Portal technology for Data access Model invocation E-FOTG Lighthouse NRCS RT OMS Proposed multi-agency group

Resource Information Conservation Planning Conservation Practices Resource Setting E-FOTG Catalog  RUSLE2  WEPS  Nutrient Management  Pesticide Screening  Phosphorus Index Resource Analysis Tools Custom User Profile OMS Deployment at NRCS NRCS Technical Toolbox RUSLE2 Soil Climate Plant Ortho Object Modeling System (OMS) Lighthouse Portal PS1 Hydrology 1 Crop Growth 1 PS2 PS 1 ErosionWindLeaching 1 Hydrology 2 Crop Growth 1a Hydrology 2 Crop Growth 1 Hydrology 2Hydrology 1 Crop Growth 1 PS2 PS 1 Erosion Leaching 2 Crop Growth 1a Wind Crop Growth 2 Net Present Value Climate Generator Crop Nutrient Uptake Leaching 1 Data Warehouses My.NRCS Smartech (E-FOTG)

Adaptive Parameterization UI Delineation and parameterization of response units:

U.S. MULTI-AGENCY MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Army Corp of Engineers (COE) US Geological Survey (USGS) NOAA Facilitates cooperation in R&D of multi-media environmental models, frameworks, and databases for use in human and environmental health risk assessment n Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) n Department of Energy (DOE) n US Agricultural Research Service (ARS) n Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

GIS Data: ESRI Shapefiles ESRI Geodatabase OGC Feature Server OGC Coverage Server GIS Processing: ESRI ArcGIS OGC Feature Server OGC Coverage Server GEOLEM Geographic Feature Business Logic/ MetaData A P I A P I Environmental Model Framework OMS MMS Frames DIAS MIMS A P I Visualization GeoViewer OUI ESRI IMS Models SEEMS RZWQM PRMS … GEOLEM: GeoSpatial Object Library for Environmental Modeling

Optimization /Sensitivity/ Uncertainty Tool Box

PRMS/MMS Training Class Goals Introduce distributed-parameter watershed modeling concepts Working knowledge of process-model concepts, formulation, assumptions, and integration Proficiency in the use of PRMS Working knowledge of selected MMS concepts tools, and techniques Familiarity with the concepts of modular design and their development and application in hydrologic and ecosystem modeling

Class Follow-on Class was an introduction to a large number of concepts, tools, and techniques. To become proficient need to learn the details. Review webb pages (mms & weasel) for updates, enhancements, message board, and modeling tutorials. Interact with other modelers. Find a mentor or become a mentor. Know model assumptions and limitations before you interpret results.

WRITING MODULES MODULE STRUCTURE SOME THINGS WE DID NOT COVER see the User’s Manual

PRECIPITATION - RUNOFF MODELING PROJECT OPEN SHOP CONSULTATION COLLABORATION

Modeling Overload