Qatar Business Optimism Index Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority

The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community Provides insight into the short-term outlook of business units on sales, profit growth, investment etc Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning the business units Business Optimism Index

Sample of business units representing Qatar’s economy was selected 500 business owners and senior executives across business units were surveyed Survey conducted during June 2009 for the 3rd quarter of 2009 Respondents were questioned about their expectations on relevant business parameters Survey also captured respondent feedback on current business conditions Survey

Introducing Composite Business Index The Composite Business Index is calculated separately for the hydrocarbon and non hydrocarbon sector Weights are assigned to each of the parameters and the base period is chosen to calculate the index For the non hydrocarbon sector, the Composite Index captures the aggregate behavior of six individual indices For the hydrocarbon sector, the Index takes into account the aggregate behavior of three individual indices

World Economic Outlook IMF revises world economic growth downwards to -1.4% in 2009, recovery expected in 2010 with 2.5% growth GDP of United States expected to contract by 2.6% in year 2009, its first since 1991 Recent emergence of green shoots have boosted sentiments all across the world; stock markets shows recovery from their multi-year lows GCC growth to rebound to 4.2% in 2010 Real GDP Growth (%)World Stock markets

Economy of Qatar At QAR 70.9bn, Qatar’s Nominal GDP is 17.5% lower than Q1 2008, but is predicted to recover quickly Steep decline in hydrocarbon prices, lead to 40% decline in the sector GDP in Q over Q Quarterly Sector GDP (QAR billion) Source: Qatar statistics quarterly

Business Optimism Indices

The Composite Business Optimism Index for the non- hydrocarbon sector stands at Business Optimism Indices Trend

Manufacturing Sector The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stands at 46.9 in June 61% of companies expect no change in selling price Current employment levels to be maintained by 79% of companies Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Source: J P Morgan and market economics in association with ISM and IFPSM BOI - Manufacturing Sector GDP 8.3%

Construction Sector Construction sector worldwide is expected to recover modestly in 2010 due to Governments’ efforts to boost infrastructure spending Qatar’s construction sector is showing growing optimism about new orders and profitability due to significant Government support Selling prices are expected to fall due to lower material costs Infrastructure construction growth Compound annual growth (%) BOI – Construction Sector GDP 4.9%

Trade & Hospitality Sector World exports are expected to decline by 25% in year 2009 due to slowdown in demand Due to seasonal variations, the trade & hospitality sector in Qatar is likely to face some pressure BOI – Trade & Hospitality sector GDP 3.6%

Logistics & Communication Sector Global transport sector has been hit by a sharp decline in global trade volumes; recovery expected in % of the respondents are optimistic on receiving new orders Higher net profits are also expected by 48% of the companies in the third quarter BOI – Logistics & Comm. sector GDP 3.3%

Finance and Business Services Sector The Global Services PMI for the month of May stands at 43.2 Sector optimistic on volume of sales and new orders with 50% and 53% of the respondents respectively expecting higher numbers BOI – Finance & Business Services sector GDP 9.9%

Oil & Gas sector 39% of the firms expect selling prices to fall, 22% anticipate a rise The Composite Business Optimism Index stands at GDP 61.7%

Other Key Highlights Trade, logistics & communication sector most concerned about availability of finance 34% of companies in the non hydrocarbon sector to increase investment in business expansion; 25% have no investment plans Internal financing is preferred by 53% and 68% of the respondents in the non hydrocarbon and hydrocarbon sector respectively 61% of companies in the hydrocarbon sector facing project delays Majority of the companies are expecting the global economy to start recovering by next year

Conclusion With recent signs of global economic revival, the demand level in Qatar is expected to increase; Manufacturing sector most optimistic Qatar’s construction industry to get support from Government’s budget allocation which emphasizes on infrastructure development Activity in finance & business services sector is expected to improve with signs of increased liquidity in the international markets Downward pressure on prices of goods and services to subside. Inflation edged up 0.6% in May (April 0.2%) Hydrocarbon sector uncertain on recent crude price rally as demand is expected to remain weak in the medium term.

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