The NSF Science and Technology Centers (STC) Program Opportunities to Transform Kelvin K. Droegemeier Vice President for Research Director Emeritus, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of Oklahoma

The STC Concept n Create well-funded, long-term centers exclusively at universities (though involving other entities) n Attack fundamental, high-risk science problems that are well beyond a single investigator and require multidisciplinary approaches n Weave education and knowledge transfer throughout the center’s activities n Encourage linkages with industry to effectuate practical utilization as well as research n Efforts to broaden participation of underrepresented groups n Sunset law -- seed fund (plant) and let others water!

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16 pages

The Role of STCs?? Science and Technology Centers

The SCIENCE Is this just chaos or is it predictable? The seemingly impossible to predict

The Relevance

The TECHNOLOGY

Data Assimilation Radars 1-D Wind, Precipitation Other Observations A Bit of Everything Some Places Forecast Model Output All Variables, But From a Forecast 3D Gridded Analysis That Contains all Variables, is Dynamically Consistent, and has Minimum Global Error w/r/t the Observations The CENTER

The Outcome Xue et al. (2003)

NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDT No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas

Reality was Quite Different!

6 pm 7 pm8 pm Radar Hourly Radar Observations (Fort Worth Shown by the Pink Star)

6 pm 7 pm8 pm Radar Fcst With Radar Data 2 hr 3 hr 4 hr Xue et al. (2003) Fort Worth

Real Time Testing Today 1 km grid, 9-hour Forecast

Not Much Time to Respond

Predicting Tornadoes: Can We Increase Lead Time to an Hour?

24 May 2011 Prediction

Evidence of Shortsightedness 19

20 Evidence of Shortsightedness 550 deaths

Where we (Originally) Missed It n Numerically predicting storms and tornadoes is a physical science and technology challenge n Saving lives is a social and behavioral sciences challenge n Recovery and reduction of property loss is an economic and policy sciences challenge n We hit a brick wall until we awakened to the need for an integrative approach involving all of the above n Building the dialog with other communities is a significant but essential challenge

The STC Journey YEAR-0 YEAR-11 Proposal and Strategic Plan Some of the Most Interesting Work

STCSTCSTCSTC

Sacrifice Tenacity Changeagent

n STCs are a different animal n They need effective leadership and management –The two are very different! –Many scientists feel burdened by management and administration: always drawn away from science –It’s about empowering others to achieve –Good science is only one component of a national center; impact should be broad, deep and transformational at the institutional and national levels –The center director must LEAD in all dimensions, realizing what appears often as a burden is an enormous opportunity Sacrifice

Tenacity n If this was easy, you wouldn’t be an STC! n Plan on finding darts in your back if you’re out in front! n You’ll face entirely new problems that seem to be a waste of time n You’ll spend a lot of time cultivating relationships, only a few of which will bear significant fruit n You’ll encounter resistance from your colleagues, university, and friends n It’s not wasted effort – do it anyway!

n In what ways is your center now, or poised to be, a broad and deep change agent? NATIONALLY/INTERNATIONALLY! Changeagent

The STC Contribution n Showing the importance of attacking HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD intellectual problems n Demonstrating the value of the “center mode” of research – something difficult in traditional academic constructs n Showing the value of and strategies for interdisciplinary research n Testing new modalities of collaboration n Driving change in institutional processes n Bringing about entirely new fields of scholarship n Developing LEADERS, not just outstanding researchers n Showing pathways from basic research to practical benefits n Helping with education/outreach and broadening participation, yet MUCH more needs to be done

When the Book is Written on CAPS... n We would like to be remembered for the fact that we –Did our best and did not squander the S&T Center opportunity –Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice (and sometimes even followed it!) –Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest quality and moved the field forward more quickly than otherwise would have been the case –Led major national initiatives that otherwise would not have happened –Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us and held ourselves to the highest standards of professional ethics –Had the interests of the community in mind for every decision made –Recognized that our work was made possible by the efforts of those who preceded us

Please don ’ t ever forget to… HAVE FUN!!!!