Turmeric - The Wonder Spice G Srivatsava Foretell Business Solutions Private Limited 07 October, 2006

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 2 Flow of presentation  Background  Supply and Demand  Area  Production  Productivity  Export  Consumption  Price analysis  Seasonality  Price drivers  Forecast  Review  Outlook

Turmeric- Background

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 4 Turmeric -Background  Botanical name - Curcuma longa  Commercial application – rhizome – underground stem  Active ingredients – Curcumin-colouring principle, aroma and flavour  Application in culinary, cosmetics, ayurvedic preparation, pharma and dyeing  Turmeric is closely linked with everything auspicious- hence indispensable element of all celebrations, festivals.

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 5 Turmeric - Background  India contributes 80% of world production and roughly 60% of exports  Indian turmeric industry size is roughly Rs – 3000 crores  Export of turmeric and its products is around Rs. 120 – 170 crores

Turmeric – Supply & Demand

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 7 Turmeric - Area and Production StateAreaShareProductionShare Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Orissa West Bengal Karnataka Gujarat Kerala Maharashtra North East* All India Source: Note: Average for and & Area in ‘000 ha, production in ’000 tons * Indicates some of Northeastern states such as Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland & Tripura

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 8 Area under turmeric Reasons to concentrate in these states:  Suitable land (it thrives best in well-drained sandy or clay loam soils)  Suitable climate (It requires a hot and moist climate)  Irrigation facility Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 9 Turmeric - Trends in area Decline in area since could be attributed to:  Poor prices especially during  Shift towards other crops like sugarcane  Drought during Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 10 Area under crop for and Note: in Hectares Source: District Agriculture Departments Districts Crop condition Kharim Nagar Satisfactory Nizamabad Good Guntur Good Kadappa2800 Good Erode Good On the whole, this year we expect the area to decrease by about 5-7% However, crop condition and therefore yield is expected to be better.

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 11 India’s production trends Factors responsible for significant changes in output:  Area under turmeric  Climate conditions  Crop maintenance  Use of hybrid varieties like IISR Prathibha Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 12 State-wise production trends StateCGR (%) Andhra Pradesh2.97 Tamil Nadu-6.69 Orissa-0.38 West Bengal0.69 Karnataka1.3 Total India0.87 Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 13 Productivity - turmeric Constraints  Climate  Hybrid varieties (For instance, the mean yield varies from 4.8 to 39.1 tons/hectare in the case of varieties such as Rajendra Sonia and IISR Prathibha respectively  Maintenance (For instance, productivity has declined during due to poor maintenance followed by lower prices)  Disease, insects and pests such as rhizome rot  Crop rotation Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 14 Export trends Note: Although export demand would be around 40,000 tons annually, good export demand could drive the prices. Export demand is rising from last couple of years on account of increased non-food use and also food use in some countries. Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 15 Export trends Key export markets  UAE - 17%  USA - 10%  Bangladesh - 9%  Sri Lanka - 7%  Japan - 7%  Malaysia - 6%  UK - 6% Note: Share based on exports for the and Source: DGFT, Ministry of Commerce, GOI Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 16 Export trends Forms in which export takes place  Dry turmeric  Oleoresin  Turmeric powder Note: Most of the produce shipped in the form of dry turmeric after polishing. In terms of volume, turmeric oleoresin account for about 200 tons per annum and turmeric powder constitutes very small portion. Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 17 Turmeric - Demand break-up Applications  As colouring Agent  Medicinal & pharmacy product Consumer preference  Households - powder  Institution - powder  FMCG - Dry & oleoresin  Health care - Oleoresin Turmeric - Demand split CategoryDemand (tons) Household250,000 Institutional55,000 Oleoresin55,000 Pharmacy50,000 Dyeing Industry50,000 Exports45,000 Polish & wastage45,000 Seeds50,000 Total600,000

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 18 World production Source: Spices Board Data

Turmeric – Price analysis

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 20 Seasonality in prices Source: Spices Board Data

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 21 Factors influencing prices Supply side factors  Area under turmeric (Marginal decline in output seen during current season)  Weather related factors  Crop output (output likely to be normal during current season as crop status is good so far)  Level of stocks (Stocks are anticipated at 12 lakh bags currently)  Farmer’s / Trader’s Sentiments Demand side factors  Domestic demand  Export demand

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 22 Turmeric spot price trend Spot Market Price Trend: (NCDEX) Rs./quintal  The weekly chart confirms seasonality. Prices fall during harvest period – Dec to Mar and rise subsequently. However, overall price trend has been bearish.  First fall –. From Rs levels (September 2003) to Rs levels (May 2005).  Second fall – From levels (December 2005) to a new low at Rs 2016 levels (April 2006).  Thereafter, prices moved up towards Rs 2580 levels (September 2006).   After unable to break above the important resistance of Rs 2600 level, prices fell in the past two weeks ahead of harvest season.  The downward trend remains valid in the foreseeable future. Spot market prices may fall towards the next major support of Rs levels. Source: Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 23 Price analysis - NCDEX Market Review:  NCDEX Turmeric (Nov’06) futures prices settled at new contract low at Rs 2505 levels on Thursday.  During the past 9 consecutive trade sessions, prices fell by 12.7% from the September 22 nd high of Rs 2860 levels.  Of course, prices have been falling in a downward channel. If the prices continue within the channel, then one has to look at the next major support at around Rs 2400 level. Source: Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 24 Price analysis - NCDEX Front Month Dec’06 futures  NCDEX Turmeric (Dec’06) futures prices also fell by 12.96% to Rs 2537 levels from the September 22 nd high of Rs 2915 levels.  Now on the upside prices may face immediate resistance at around Rs 2600 level. Once this resistance is broken then one has to look at the next resistance at around Rs 2650 level.  Volume and open interest supported the fall.  As long as prices hold below Rs 2650 level, that will keep the prices into negative territory.  On the other hand, prices may face immediate support at around Rs 2500 and then Rs 2400 level.  When we look, at the weekly continuation chart, so far, prices made two major peaks and one trough. Source: Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

Turmeric - Price Outlook

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 26 Price outlook - NCDEX Price Outlook:  Overall, turmeric price trend remains bearish in the short to medium term  Though, festival and Indian Marriage season, turmeric futures prices may move in southward, due to, good crop conditions across producing areas in India.  NCDEX (Nov’06) futures prices may drop towards the next major support of Rs 2350 levels. If this support is broken then one has to look at the next major support at around Rs 2200 level.

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 27 Acknowledgement Sincere thanks to Karvy Comtrade Limited and Mr. Ashok Mittal for inviting us to this conference To the discerning audience who have shown keen interest in this conference To my colleagues at Foretell for putting all the efforts in making this presentation

CommodityIndia.com The All India Spices Conference Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 28 Foretell Business Solutions Private Limited #3530, 13th H Main, I Cross Road, HAL II Stage, Bangalore – TeL / 153, Fax: Web: