Social Trends in Australia and implications for church life Anglican Apostolic Assemblies of God Baptist Brethren Catholic Christian Missionary Alliance Christian City Church COC Australia Congregational CRC Churches International Church of the Nazarene Churches of Christ Four Square Gospel Lutheran Presbyterian Christian Reformed Churches Salvation Army Seventh-day Adventist Uniting Church Vineyard Fellowship Worldwide Church of God and Independent congregations, House churches and other Christian communites. National Church Life Survey attenders 7000 local churches leaders More than 22 denominations and movements including: NCLS Research

Social Trends in Australia and implications for church life NCLS Research

six categories

population structure

one key trend: Australia’s population is ageing as it is growing

evidence?

1921 Source: ABS 2008a

1931 Source: ABS 2008a

1941 Source: ABS 2008a

1951 Source: ABS 2008a

1961 Source: ABS 2008a

1971 Source: ABS 2008a

1981 Source: ABS 2008a

1991 Source: ABS 2008a

2001 Source: ABS 2008a

2011 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

2021 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

2031 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

2041 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

2051 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

implications The elderly will make up an increasing proportion of the population BUT there will still be a numeric increase in the number of children and adults in their middle years

education

one key trend: Australia’s population is increasingly well educated

evidence?

education by generation “Oldest Generation” “Lucky Generation”“Baby Boomers”“Generation X and Y” Over YOB ABS label 2006 age Source: ABS 2009

implications Increasingly well educated ministry staff will need to be alert to needs of less educated aged congregations Changing needs and expectations placed on teaching and learning situations from younger generations

employment and income

one key trend: Australian women are working more

evidence? 53% of all women 15+ employed in 2006 (up from 40% in 1976) Small rise in women working full-time (29% up from 26% in 1976) but big rise in part-time employment: 24% of all women work part-time (up from 14% in 1976)

Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage

Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage

Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage

Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage Mums with kids under 5 work an AVERAGE of over 70 hours per week

implications Young mums are working really hard Do you target women as the volunteers with ‘available time’? Young dads spend lots of time at work Does church contribute to quality family time?

households and families

one key trend: Families are forming and re-forming increasingly flexibly

evidence?

families with children Only two thirds of all children live in a ‘traditional’ family Source: ABS 2006a

Decline in marriage rates and rise in co-habitation rates 76% of all marriages in 2006 were preceded by co-habitation Nearly 40% of all co-habitations begun since 1990 end in separation within 5 years (compared to approx. 9% of marriages in the same period) Overall decline in the proportion of adults living with a partner Dramatic increase in ex-nuptial births: 33% of all children in 2006 (up from 3-4% in the 1960s) BUT proportion of birth certificates with father’s name increased from 58% in 1980 to 90% in 2006 (related to co- habitation) Source: AIFS 2008

implications Activities will need to be open to non-traditional family structures Welcoming people with non-traditional families into church will be an increasingly significant social issue Stable Christian marriages and families can provide valuable support networks and role models

housing

one key trend: New arrivals in your local area are most likely to be from other parts of your state

evidence?

residential mobility after 5 years Same address Same local area Same state Different state Overseas 51% 11% 20% 4% 8% Not stated: 6% At least three of every ten people in our communities has arrived in the last five years from outside the local area. Source: ABS 2006a

implications Opportunities to welcome Opportunities to provide support and local knowledge

culture and religion

two key trends: There is an increasing diversity of source countries in migration to Australia There has been a massive rise in the number of Australians selecting ‘no religion’ on their Census forms

evidence?

country of birth 1996 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 1997 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 1998 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 1999 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 2000 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 2001 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 2002 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 2003 Source: ABS 2008c

country of birth 2004 Source: ABS 2008c

country of birth 2005 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 2006 Source: ABS 2008a

country of birth 2007 Source: ABS 2008a

It’s not the same everywhere!

religious affiliation Source: ABS 2006b

religious affiliation Source: ABS 2006b

implications Diversity makes it increasingly problematic to try to reach ethnic groups on-by-one Increasing numbers of unchurched white Australians who feel no religious affiliation There’s really only very small numbers of people following non-Christian religions in Australia

questions?

references Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006a) Australian Basic Community Profile, Catalogue number ; Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006b) Year Book Australia, Catalogue number ; Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008a) Australian Historical Population Statistics, Catalogue number ; Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008b) Population Projections, Australia, Catalogue number ; Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) A Picture of the Nation, Catalogue number ; Australian Institute of Family Studies (2007) A snapshot of how Australian families spend their time; Australian Institute of Family Studies (2008) Snapshots of family relationships;

Thank you NCLS Research Capital City Visits, Winter 2009 contact: or (02) 8267