Fed Cattle Outlook Great Plains and Midwest Outlook Conference Louisville, KY August 13, 2015 David P. Anderson Professor and Extension Economist

Overview Squeeze Structure Marketing Outlook Ouch!

Squeeze

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Squeeze Tight Supplies of Feeders Overcapacity –Higher feeder prices Pressure on Fed Prices –Hides and offals –Seasonality Lower Feed Prices

Structure

Cattle on Feed

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Marketing

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Marketing Large Shift to Formula Pricing –Thinner markets Away From Negotiated Cash Classic Price Discovery Issues

Feed-Fed I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Prices for Texas Combined Auction for and 7-800