Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University

Outline Default scenarios –For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports –For electrification: power imports & diesel generation Addressing the Thai side –Removing bias in load forecasting –Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field Addressing the Burma side –Some clean community energy options

Tasang 7,000 MW Upper Salween 4,000 MW Lower Salween 500 MW Hut Gyi 1,200 MW Yawatit 600 MW Tanaosri 720 MW Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand

Natural gas Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) –1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes from Burma –20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay for Burmese gas Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government –Accounts for fully half of Burma’s exports in 2006 –US$2.16 billion to junta from Thailand. –Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas, Nippon Oil, etc. Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch rma16995.htm rma16995.htm

Sell electricity to Thailand cheap, buy back expensive 2 baht/kWh 8 baht/kWh 1 baht/kWh

Diesel

Can we imagine something different?

Addressing the Thai side: 1) Remove bias in Thailand’s load forecasting

Demand growth has been linear over the past 20 years…

But official Thai load forecasts are always exponential…

… so they always overestimate actual demand, building power plants that aren’t needed… including new hydropower in Burma…

Addressing the Thai side: 2) Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field

Summary of PDP 2007

Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it Source: The World Bank (1993) Demand Side Management (saving electricity) Actual 10-year DSM average cost!!! 1.5

The Arun-3 story Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal Sell electricity to India, rural electrification Nepalese NGOs and small business: “Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy” World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of: –over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3 –at ½ the cost –In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3

Addressing the Burma side: (… besides the political and human rights problems…) 1) clean, decentralized energy options – especially for rural applications

Renewable energy fuels and uses End use ElectricityMech power / pumping Water heating CookingTransportation TechnologyOff-gridOn-grid BiomassGasifier●●● Biogas●●●● Steam turbine ● Direct combustion ●● Biodiesel or ethanol ●●● Micro- hydro ●●● Solar●●● Wind●●●

Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW generator Ratchaburi Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh

Biomass Gasification Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan 400 kW

Gasifier electricity from wood

Biodiesel

Efficient Charcoal

Micro-hydroelectricity Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.

Hydraulic ram pump

Hydraulic ram pump

Solar cooking

Solar electricity – off-grid 25,000 baht per household system 120 watts Electricity for 2 lights + TV

Thai solar home systems 203,000 solar home systems Sustainability challenge

Solar water heating

Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings 7 trainings ( ) >90 medics trained 35 clinics

Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator Each powers 12 computers

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