Leaders Effecting Change on Public Opinion in the United States Presented by Dan Yankelovich to U.S. - Islamic World Forum Doha, Qatar February 18, 2006

2 Conference Theme: LEADERS EFFECT CHANGE Research discovery: SUCCEEDS ONLY WHEN TWO CONDITIONS ARE MET

3 To effect change on a threshold issue, two conditions must prevail I: Shared urgency about problem II: Solution fits with public’s “common sense” + One or another is not enough. To effect change, both conditions must be met.

4 Three Threshold Issues WAR IN IRAQ U.S. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE U.S.-Muslim Relations Nuclear Proliferation Israeli-Arab Conflict Tensions with China

5 War in Iraq: Public worried Worry “a lot” Worry “somewhat” Worry “somewhat” 86% 80% Worry about casualties in Iraq* Worry about distraction from other priorities** *Q 10A: How much do you worry that the war in Iraq is leading to too many casualties? (A lot, somewhat, not at all) **Q 10C: How much do you worry that the war in Iraq is requiring so much money and attention that it may be distracting the U.S. from other threats in the world? (A lot, somewhat, not at all)

6 War in Iraq: Public has reservations about U.S. strategy Public favors emphasizing:*Public questions whether US is meeting its objectives** * Q 8C: Thinking about things that the government must do to fight terrorism, should the government put more emphasis on military efforts or should it put more emphasis on diplomatic and economic methods? ** Q 9J: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to succeeding in meeting our objectives in Iraq? (“Successful” = A or B; “Unsuccessful” = C, D, F)

7 War in Iraq: Very divisive politically Government completely truthful about why we invaded Iraq* Government successful in meeting our objectives in Iraq** War in Iraq is leading to too many casualties*** ** Q 9J: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to succeeding in meeting our objectives in Iraq? (A, B, C, D, F; “Successful” = A or B) *** Q 10A: How much do you worry that the war in Iraq is leading to too many casualties? (A lot, somewhat, not at all) * Q 18c-B: How truthful do you think the government has been in what it has told the public about why we invaded Iraq?

8 Lack of energy independence: A major public concern Worry “a lot”“A great deal” Worry “somewhat” “Somewhat” 88% 90% Worry about supply of energy* Dependence reduces our security** *Q 10D: How much do you worry that problems abroad may hurt our supply of oil and raise prices for American consumers? (A lot, somewhat, not at all) **Q 10C: How much would becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy enhance our nation’s security? (A great deal, somewhat, not at all)

9 Lack of energy independence: Government seen as failing A lot Something 85% Government is able to do something about it* Government has been successful on this objective** *Q 13H: Is decreasing our dependence on other countries for our supply of energy something our government can do a lot about, something about, or not much about? **Q 9X: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy? (A, B, C, D, F: “Successful” = A or B)

10 Lack of energy independence NOT divisive politically Government has been successful in achieving energy independence* *Q 9X: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy? (A, B, C, D, F: “Successful” = A or B)

11 Relations with Muslim countries: Widespread discontent, confidence in communication *Q 9R: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to having good relations and reputations with Muslim countries? (A, B, C, D, F: “Successful” = A or B) Government has succeeded in establishing good relations* Believe improved communication and dialogue will reduce hatred of U.S.** * Q 11A: Do you think/believe that improved communication and dialogue with the Muslim world will reduce hatred of the U.S.?

12 Public has confidence in democracy, but not in US government’s ability to implant it in other nations More democracy means less conflict* Countries must come to democracy on their own** Government can do a lot to create a democracy in Iraq*** *Q 11C: Do you think/believe that when more countries become democratic there will be less conflict and violence in the world? **Q 17: Do you think the U.S. can effectively help other countries become democratic, or is democracy something that countries only come to on their own when they’re ready for it? ***Q 13B: Is creating a democratic Iraq something our government can do a lot about, something about, or not much about?

13 What U.S. foreign policy goals should be Help with natural disasters (Q 18a-E) * Cooperate on environment and disease control (Q 18a-H) * Support UN peacekeeping (Q 18aa) * Improve the treatment of women (Q 18a-L) * Help people in poor countries get an education (Q 18a-K) * Help poor countries move out of poverty (Q 18a-I) * Get less involved with global issues (Q 18a-B) * Encourage business to invest in poor countries (Q 18a-J) * Actively create democracy abroad (Q 18a-C) * = Humanitarian goals Highest ranked goals Middle ranked goals Lowest ranked goals * Full text of each question can be found on slide 15

14 Two proposals for leadership I. Accentuate humanitarian ideals that public supports, especially in relation to Muslim countries II. A more determined and ambitious effort to achieve energy independence … reduce “oil politics”

15 Appendix: Text of questions from slide 13  Q 18a: How important to our foreign policy should each of the following be: l 18a-E: Helping other countries when they are struck by natural disasters (like the tsunami in Indonesia)? l 18a-H: Cooperating with other countries on problems like the environment or control of diseases? l 18a-L: Improving the treatment of women in other countries? l 18a-K: Helping people in poor countries to get an education? l 18a-I: Helping poor countries move out of poverty? l 18a-B: Minding our own business and getting less involved with global issues? l 18a-J: Encouraging U.S. business to invest in poor countries? l 18a-C: Actively creating democracies in other countries?  Q 18aa: Would you say that the US support of the UN Peacekeeping effort is: important and worthwhile, or a waste of resources? Data in this presentation comes from an ongoing tracking survey conducted by Public Agenda and will be published in the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs.