What’s New in Development? Duncan Green, Oxfam Warwick Economics Summit February 2011

First, the Bread and Butter Growth and poverty reduction Aid and the MDGs Universal health, education, water Gender justice and Human Rights

A retro theme – hunger and resource constraints Source: WFP

Global ecological boundaries (cannot be shifted) Consumption share of those living in poverty Environmental impact of global consumption Reality in billion

Global ecological boundaries (cannot be shifted) Consumption share of those living in poverty Environmental impact of global consumption Vision for billion

The Arrival of ‘Northern issues’ in the South Aging Domestic Taxation Mental Health Obesity/non communicable diseases

A new global system is being born Multipolar world – the rise of the rest Makes the next bit much more complicated Piecemeal global government –International Taxation (Robin Hood etc) –Environment (> Climate Change) –Trade and investment –Financial system –Migration –Knowledge

New ways of thinking are emerging How Change Happens –Discontinuity –Emergence and complexity –How on earth do you plan for that? More politics, (and less economics?) What do we measure? –Volatility and Resilience > stocks and average flows –Poverty v fear v wellbeing –The unpaid and unvalued world

An Age of Development Or an Age of Scarcity ?

Yours is the generation We sink or swim by the time you retire….. –End Poverty and Hunger, or accept global apartheid? –Sustainability or meltdown? –Technology as servant or master? –Global welfare state or Darwinian politics?

Thankyou! For more random thoughts From Poverty to Power blog on oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/