WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 9/16/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)

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Presentation transcript:

WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 9/16/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)

Windsor tornado case, 22 May 2008 Tornado touched down at Windsor, Colorado around 17:40 UTC, 22 May 2008 Facts: Most expensive tornado in Colorado's history 1 fatality, injuries, 850 home damages ~$200 million F3 (wind as high as 130 to 150 mph) NWS Doppler Radar Image at 11:44 AM MDT

Simulation of Windsor tornado case, 22 May 2008, 5 km run Tornado touched down at Windsor, Colorado around 17:40 UTC, 22 May 2008 STMAS initialization 5 km 279x208, test 21 levels background model: RUC 13km, 17 UTC (also tested 15 UTC, 16 UTC) hot start (cloud analysis) Boundary conditions (BCs): RUC 13km, 3-h RUC forecast (initialized at 15 UTC) WRF-ARW 5 km with nested 1.67 km (301x313), 1-h forecast, 35 levels Thompson microphysics 10 min output Postprocessing: reflectivity Verification: wind, reflectivity

00-01hr 800mb reflectivity initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, mosaic radar vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 5 km

00-01hr 800mb reflectivity initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, mosaic radar vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 1.7 km nested in 5 km

Simulation of Windsor tornado case, 22 May 2008, 1.67 km run STMAS initialization 1.67 km 301 x 313, test 21 and 41 levels background model: RUC 13km, 17 UTC hot start (cloud analysis) Boundary conditions (BCs): RUC 13km, 3-h RUC forecast (initialized at 15 UTC) WRF-ARW 1.67 km, 1-h forecast, 35 levels (81 levels tested) Thompson microphysics 10 min output Postprocessing: reflectivity

00-01hr 800mb wind initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, STMAS analysis vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 1.7 km

00-01hr wind cross-section initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, STMAS analysis vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 1.7 km

00-01hr omega cross-section initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, STMAS analysis vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 1.7 km

00-01hr 800mb reflectivity initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, mosaic radar vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 1.7 km

00-01hr reflectivity cross-section initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, mosaic radar vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 1.7 km

00-01hr 800mb reflectivity initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, WRF forecast (nested 1.7 km from 5 km STMAS vs. 1.7 km STMAS)

00-01hr reflectivity cross-section initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, WRF forecast, RUC vs. STMAS, 1.7 km

00-01hr 800mb wind initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, WRF forecast (LAPS vs. STMAS), 1.7 km

00-01hr reflectivity cross-section initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, WRF forecast (STMASL21 vs. STMASL41), 1.7 km

Simulation of Windsor tornado case, 22 May 2008, 800 m run STMAS initialization 800 m 257 x 257 background model: RUC 13km, 17 UTC hot start (cloud analysis) Boundary conditions: RUC 13km, 3-h RUC forecast (initialized at 15 UTC) WRF-ARW 800 m, 1-h forecast, 81 levels Thompson microphysics 10 min output Postprocessing: reflectivity

00-01hr 800mb reflectivity initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, mosaic radar vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 800m

00-01hr reflectivity cross-section initialized at 17 UTC 22 May 2005, mosaic radar vs. WRF forecast (STMAS), 800 m

Summary of Windsor tornado case, 22 May 2008 Initial conditions are the most important factor Little BC impacts for 1-h forecast Tested 5km, 1.7km, with different RUC BCs (e.g., 3-h fcst from15 UTC, RUC analysis at 18 UTC, etc.) Forecasts initialized at finer analysis are better than inner nesting. Hot start initialization is very important for tornado forecasting Resolutions (both horizontal and vertical) in initialization play an important role; parameters in model less important (vertical resolution).

Future Modeling Considerations Resolution (horizontal & vertical) Microphysics Scheme Reflectivity Calculation