Storm-based Warnings NWS Partner’s Meeting January 18, 2007 John Ferree NOAA’s National Weather Service NWS Partner’s Meeting January 18, 2007 John Ferree NOAA’s National Weather Service

County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms

Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated. “Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million dollars a year in reduction of the cost of sheltering” - Dr. Dan Sutter Professor of Economics

An Extreme Example of Falsely Alarmed Area Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino and Riverside Counties CA Warning area = State of IL Actual area threatened = Small county in IL Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino and Riverside Counties CA Warning area = State of IL Actual area threatened = Small county in IL

Graphic Dissemination of Storm-Based Warnings Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO. WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red).

Digital Emergency Alert System (DEAS) Will Improve Direct Dissemination Any digital device Digital TV Satellite Radio Internet Cell Phone PDA Geo-located Text, Audio, Video Any digital device Digital TV Satellite Radio Internet Cell Phone PDA Geo-located Text, Audio, Video

Challenges for SB Warnings County Warning Area Boundaries St. Louis CWA Paducah CWA Lincoln CWA Madison Bond Clinton Fayette Marion St. Clair Washington Randolph Perry Jackson Franklin Jefferson Hamilton Williamson Saline Wayne Clay Issued by STL STL PAH ILX

Challenges for SB Warnings County Warning Area Boundaries Madison Bond Clinton Fayette Marion St. Clair Washington Randolph Perry Jackson Franklin Jefferson Hamilton Williamson Saline Wayne Clay St. Louis CWA Paducah CWA Lincoln CWA Issued by STL Issued by PAH STL PAH ILX

Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish Issue for text, radio, TV crawls Add reference to other valid warnings Include counties with directional delimiters? Summary severe weather statements? Issue for text, radio, TV crawls Add reference to other valid warnings Include counties with directional delimiters? Summary severe weather statements? Madison Bond Clinton Fayette Marion St. Clair Washington Randolph Perry Jackson Franklin Jefferson Williamson TOR until 3:30PM SVR until 3:45PM

Challenges for SB Warnings Text /Audio Dissemination Already use directional delimiters “Tornado Warning for Southern Ford County” Additional cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers Already use directional delimiters “Tornado Warning for Southern Ford County” Additional cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers

Minor Enhancement Planned to Warning Format Add location and motion of feature Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other. Add location and motion of feature Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other. *AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. *THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST LAT...LON TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT *AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. *THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST LAT...LON TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT

Short-term Warning Formats Discussed at SB Warning Workshop Format warnings in a more machine readable format such as CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) or XML (Extensible Markup Language) Example from Melissa Tuttle-Carr at The Weather Channel Format warnings in a more machine readable format such as CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) or XML (Extensible Markup Language) Example from Melissa Tuttle-Carr at The Weather Channel

Here’s the Plan Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007 Currently gathering feedback from partners and customers Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, lists) Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, lists) Private Sector Meteorologist December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at Texas A&M in College Station, Texas Developing software and training to support forecasters Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007 Currently gathering feedback from partners and customers Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, lists) Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, lists) Private Sector Meteorologist December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at Texas A&M in College Station, Texas Developing software and training to support forecasters

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