The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group.

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Presentation transcript:

The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, Pearl Street Cambridge, MA

Synapse Energy Economics 1.Marginal costs influence behavior 2.The shape of CSE curves matters 3.Unproven efficiency reserves are typically ignored 4.Unproven oil and gas reserves are not ignored 5.Research is needed to characterize technological change and unproven efficiency reserves

Synapse Energy Economics Prices for US Electricity, Gas, Oil (nominal $)

Synapse Energy Economics Regional Clean Energy Plans These reports are available on the web:

Synapse Energy Economics Xenergy, Generic curve

Synapse Energy Economics CSE Curve Data Xenergy, Generic curve Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State (4) Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia (2) LBL, 1999, US SERI, 1981, US

Synapse Energy Economics CSE Curve Data LBL, 1995, US Amory Lovins, 1989, US Optimal, 2003, New York State Xenergy, 2002, California Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Interior West Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Utah NYSERDA, 2003, New York State (2)

Synapse Energy Economics Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US

Synapse Energy Economics Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy- Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US

Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW

Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia

Synapse Energy Economics Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia

Synapse Energy Economics LBL, 1999, US

Synapse Energy Economics SERI, 1981, US

Synapse Energy Economics LBL, 1995, US

Synapse Energy Economics Amory Lovins, 1989, US

Synapse Energy Economics Optimal, 2003, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics Xenergy, 2002, California

Synapse Energy Economics Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California

Synapse Energy Economics Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW

Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2001, Interior West

Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW

Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2001, Utah

Synapse Energy Economics NYSERDA, 2003, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics NYSERDA, 2003, New York State

Synapse Energy Economics EIA

Synapse Energy Economics EIA

Synapse Energy Economics Hydrocarbon Resource Classification

Synapse Energy Economics US Oil and Gas (as of 1/1/2002) Crude Oil (billion barrels) Natural Gas (trillion cubic feet) Undiscovered56222 Inferred49232 Unconventional and assoc. gasNA611 Total lower 48 unproved Alaska2432 Total unproved Proven reserves24183 Total technically recoverable

Synapse Energy Economics Oil and Gas Math Undiscovered +Inferred +Proven reservesGeological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable from know reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions =Technically recoverable reserves Producible using current technology but without reference to economic profitability

Synapse Energy Economics IEA Regional Shares

Synapse Energy Economics Proven Reserves by Region

Synapse Energy Economics Ultimately Recoverable

Synapse Energy Economics World Original Resource Base

Synapse Energy Economics Annual Production Scenarios

Synapse Energy Economics Ultimately Recoverable Oil

Synapse Energy Economics Gas Price Forecasts Since 1975

Synapse Energy Economics Generic CSE curve corrected

Synapse Energy Economics Research Ideas Analysis of CSE curves – past projections v. what actually happened Identify reasons for upturn in CSE price Characterize reasons and quantify to the extent possible – by technology. Apply concepts from oil and gas reserves?