CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering predictions from models global energy 22 February 2011 team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due today, electronically, to and exam on first half of class: Thurs review session for exam, today at 5:00PM, Sloan 150

pre-warned questions for the exam on the 24 th : what is the average global percent increase in [CO 2 ]/yr since 1959? what is the solar energy input [w/m 2 ] at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere? what is the average albedo of the Earth [%]? what is the solar cycle variability in solar output measured at top of Earth’s atmosphere? [%] how many degrees is the Earth warmer with greenhouse gases than without? [°C] what ~ percent of global carbon emissions stays in the Earth’s atmosphere? what is the pre-industrial (1750) level of [CO 2 ] [ppm]? what is the current level of [CO 2 ] [ppm]?

possible topics for your project – you must have a strong engineering component/analysis: carbon sequestration energy efficiency clean technologies the technological solution nuclear fusion high performance buildings and green technologies unconventional oil fission nuclear geothermal energy solar photovoltaic solar thermal biomass hydrogen economy mitigation strategies in transportation, residential and commercial buildings, electric power sector, industry, agriculture ag sector – afforestation, forest management, soil carbon sequestration, biofuel offsets, livestock management, nitrous oxide related soil management title - the topic must address the engineering of climate change what subject to you intend to address why is the subject important to the engineering of climate change do you have a hypothesis to propose concerning your subject

exam next Thursday, There are the pre-warned questions, just memorize the answers and write down on the exam – I will make it worth your while to learn these important facts. There will be numerical questions on the exam – all equations will be given to you with constants. Review the homework and that should get you up on this curve. Solutions are on the website. There will be short answer type questions – explain something There will be several longer questions to see if you can synthesize the numerous charts and graphs that were presented in class.

a quick look at global energy sources and projected demand

The amount of carbon by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed

global energy production by type

global GHG emissions (anthropogenic)

to 2004  China/India

Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Top Emitters Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) China USA Japan Russian Fed. India Time (y)

by region; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent

Top 20 CO 2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank CHINA USA INDIA RUSSIA JAPAN GERMANY IRAN SOUTH KOREA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA ITALY BRAZIL AUSTRALIA FRANCE (inl. Monaco) POLAND SPAIN Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y -1 )

Total global energy demand 70% increase (International Energy Outlook 2006)

Energy use by type (International Energy Outlook 2006)

Who has the oil? USA China India (

Hubbert’s curve

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy -1 ) Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Observed Projected Time (y)

discussion of climate change: where are you on the warming question where are you on the attribution of cause question natural cause human cause obviously the attribution is a mixture, the question is how much of either is climate change a manufactured question “existing only in the feverish imaginations of environmental zealots”? why is climate change so polarizing – it always seems to bring out the worst how important do you think it is to act now with what you might consider insufficient evidence the technological solution? how would you advise a person in the Congress to vote on climate legislation how important do you think it is to participate in “global solutions” will the US be at a competitive disadvantage by adopting energy policies to limit GHG emissions how should GHG emissions be limited how do you feel about responsibility for the rising GHG concentration problem – developed world and the developing world – ethics of climate change