Timothy J. Brown Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV Greg Garfin and Melanie Lenart University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Heath Hockenberry Bureau of Land Management, Boise, ID Significant Fire Potential Outlook 2005

Fire weather meteorologists Fuels specialists Fire specialists Fire management Climatologists Workshop Participants

Executive summary Introduction and objectives Current conditions Climate outlooks Fire occurrence and resource outlooks Future scenarios and probabilities Management implications and concerns Summary and recommendations Seasonal Fire Outlook Content

Temperature/precipitation anomalies Snow ENSO Circulation Drought indices Protocols/Needs Current Conditions - Atmosphere

Long-range temperature and precipitation Circulation ENSO Drought Soil moisture Fire weather/danger indices Protocols/Needs Outlooks

Fire Family Plus tool Priority sub-regions within Geographic Area Fuel-type considerations Climate considerations Season ending event probabilities Protocol Future Scenarios

Seasonal fire occurrence/activity estimates Estimates of expected resource needs Protocol Final Product

Scenario description for the 2005 season Probability Most likely scenario Dry pattern continues in Florida and fire activity will be normal to slightly above normal in Florida and normal for the rest of the Southern Area 80% Best-case scenario Wet pattern begins, leading to minimal fire activity throughout the Southern Area 10% Worst-case scenario Large-scale drying trend develops, leading to above normal fire activity across the Southern Area 10% Scenarios

The likelihood of fire occurrence based on factors such as fuel conditions, weather and firefighting resources Fire Potential Definition

Create a comprehensive seasonal significant fire potential outlook Foster communication and enhanced information flow among fire managers in different states and at federal levels Help fire managers understand value and limitation of climate forecasts Provide feedback to climatologists about meeting product needs of fire managers Gather feedback on usefulness of workshop products Improve workshop process and resulting outlooks based on group recommendations Workshop goals

To inform fire chiefs and firefighters about the significant fire potential during coming season To predict whether and when firefighters and resources will be available to respond to national mobilizations To better plan the timing of prescribed burns for the coming season To assist in decisions of whether firefighters will likely have opportunity to participate in seasonal training programs, conferences and workshops To provide insight on budgetary matters To inform public (e.g., awareness of timing prescribed burns, debris-burning restrictions) Workshop value