SEDAR 42: US Gulf of Mexico Red grouper assessment Review Workshop Data inputs SEFSC July 14 - 16, 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

SEDAR 42: US Gulf of Mexico Red grouper assessment Review Workshop Data inputs SEFSC July , 2015

SEDAR 42 Red Grouper Assessment Data inputs Assessment model configuration Model fit to data Model diagnostics Stock status determination Projections U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Data inputs Landings Handline: Longline: Trap: Charter/Headboat/Private: Discards Handline: (observer program)* Longline: (observer program)* Trap: (self reported)* Charter/Headboat/Private: Length composition of discards Handline: (observer program) Longline: (observer program) Charter: (observer program) Headboat: , (observer program) Age composition of retained catch Handline: Longline: Charter/Headboat/Private: U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 Abundance indices Handline: ** Longline: ** Charter/Private: Headboat: Combined video survey: , 2002, *** SEAMAP summer groundfish survey: NMFS bottom longline survey: 2001, Length composition of fishery-independent indices Combined video survey: SEAMAP summer groundfish survey: NMFS bottom longline survey:

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4 Data inputs

Landings Commercial Fleets Handline ( ) Longline ( ) Trap ( ) Recreational Fleets Charter/Private: (1986 – 2013) Headboat: (1986 – 2013) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

Commercial landings Data Sources Accumulated landings system (ALS) Florida trip ticket Florida landings Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) Program Landings in IFQ years U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Mean annual commercial trips by area U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page

Mean annual commercial landings by area U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page

Commercial landings Longline predominant fishery followed by handline and trap Longline and handline landings similar at start and end of time-series Longline landings ~2x greater than handline between 1993 and 2005 Trap landings drop to zero after 2006 Outlawed fishing practice U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Recreational landings Data sources: Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) and Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP) Provides estimates for all recreational modes except headboat after 1986 Covers Florida to Louisiana Southeast Region Headboat Survey (SRHS) logbook program U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

Recreational landings Majority of recreational landings are from the Charter/Private fleet Charter/Private landings show high variability with periods of higher and lower average landings U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

Commercial and recreational landings Predominant fleets are commercial longline and handline, and recreational charter/private ~76% commercial ~24% recreational U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12 Avg ~ 43% Avg ~ 26% Avg ~ 22.5% Avg ~ 0.9% Avg ~ 7.2%

Discards Commercial Trap Commercial HL & LL Recreational Charter/Private Recreational Headboat U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

Commercial Trap Discards ( ) Self-reported effort Self-reported discard rate Method from SEDAR12 update (2009) Discards = Self. Reported Rate * Annual Total Effort (by strata: targeting only significant factor/strata in GLM) : Average rate for : Annual rates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

Preliminary estimates based on SEDAR update Commercial HL and LL Discards ( ) Self-reported total effort Observed discard rate Preliminary discard estimation method: Discards = Obs. Discards Rate * Annual Total Effort (by strata: gear, area, size limit, season, allocation, depth) : Average rates for (Pre-IFQ) : Annual rates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

Preliminary estimates based on SEDAR update Commercial HL and LL Discards ( ) Discards = Obs. Discards Rate * Annual Total Effort DW recommended exploring total effort To do so, calculated observer landings were compared to official estimated landings for HL and LL (next slide): Obs. Calculated landings = Obs. Kept Rate * Total Effort Based on results, HL and LL estimates of total effort were deemed unreliable U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

Preliminary estimates based on SEDAR update Commercial HL and LL Discards ( ) Official landings compared to calculated landings Obs. Calculated landings = Obs. Kept Rate * Total Effort U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17 ~ 5x ~ 2/3 most years

Commercial HL and LL Discards ( ) Official landings by strata Observer discard and kept rates Current discard estimation method: (by strata: year, subregion, season, fishery, allocation) : Average rates for (Pre-IFQ) : Annual rates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18

Commercial HL and LL Discards ( ) Strata : subregion, season, fishery : year, subregion, season, fishery, allocation U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19 Subregion East, West Season Open season, Closed Season IFQ allocation None, 1+ Pounds, applicable to only Fishery shark or reef fish, applicable to bottom longline only Commercial discards for present assessment were substantially higher than commercial discards in previous assessments.

Commercial HL and LL Discards ( ) Compared to 2009 SEDAR Estimates ( ) New method leads to larger estimated of discards High discards are supported by high discard fractions on observed trips U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20

Commercial discards Longline over 50% of annual discards Except 2009 and 2010 At its highest in 1996, trap 22% of annual discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21

Recreational Charter/Private Discards ( ) Self-reported discards : estimated/adjusted in the same manner as self-reported landings U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22

Recreational Headboat Discards ( ) Self-reported landings/discards CB proxy Self-reported HB discards and landings Observed data : Self-reported discards validated by obs. data : Charterboat proxy: U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page

Recreational Discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24

Discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25 49%53% 12%18% 33%26% 1.5%0% 4%2.5% ‘93-’06‘07-13

Discard Mortality FleetData SourceDiscard RateSensitivity Rates Recreational FleetsFWC Obs. Program11.6% 5.8%, 14.5% Commercial HLFWC Obs. Program (41-50m only)19%10.0%, 31.0% Commercial LL Pre-IFQNMFS Obs. Program41.4%34.3%, 48.7% Commercial LL Post-IFQNMFS Obs. Program43.6%36.7%, 50.8% Commercial Trap*SEDAR update 2009*10% U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26 *No new data on discard mortality rates available. 10% used in past assessments (2002, 2006, and 2009) FWC Observer Program NMFS Observer Program

Indices of abundance Indices working group recommended four fishery- dependent indices and three fishery-independent indices for use in the assessment model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27

Indices of abundance U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28 Fishery-dependent Commercial handline ( ) Commercial longline ( ) Charter/Private ( ) Headboat ( ) Fishery-independent SEAMAP summer groundfish survey: NMFS bottom longline survey: 2001, Combined video survey: , 2002, SEAMAP video: , 2002, PC Lab video: FWRI video: PC lab video FWRI video SEAMAP video Fishery-dependent indices, SEAMAP summer groundfish, & NMFS bottom longline

Fishery-dependent indices U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29

Indices Fishery-dependent U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30

Fishery-independent indices U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31

Indices Fishery-independent U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 32

Age composition Data sources Commercial fleets ( ) Trip Interview Program (TIP) Recreational fleets ( ) MRFSS/MRIP SRHS GulfFIN TIP U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 33

Age composition U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 34 Commercial HandlineCommercial LonglineCommercial Trap Charter/PrivateHeadboat

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 35 Age composition Cohort Commercial HandlineCommercial LonglineCommercial Trap Charter/PrivateHeadboat 1988, 1995, 1998, 2001, , 2001, , 1995, 1998, , 1998, 2005

Length composition Data Sources Discards NMFS Observer Program Commercial handline ( ) Commercial longline ( ) FWRI At-Sea Observer Survey Charter ( ) Headboat ( , ) Fishery-independent surveys Video surveys (2008 – 2013) SEAMAP summer groundifsh survey ( ) NMFS bottom longline survey ( ) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 36

Length composition - discards U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page inch TL size limit 18 inch TL size limit Commercial HandlineCommercial Longline IFQ program CharterHeadboat

Length composition – Fishery independent surveys U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 38 Combined video 20 – 100 cm FL SEAMAP summer groundfish 0 – 80 cm FL NMFS bottom longline 30 – 90 cm FL

EXTRA SLIDES U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 39

Combined video index Standardization method Poisson sub-model for nonzero data Binomial sub-model for presence-absence data U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 40 PC Lab FWRI SEAMAP

Standardization methods Delta-lognormal model (Lo et al., 1992 ) Commercial handline Charter/Private Headboat SEAMAP summer groundfish survey NMFS bottom longline survey Lognormal model Commercial longline (high proportion of positive trips) Delta-Poisson model Combined video survey U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 41

Indices U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 42 commHLcommLLMRFSSHBVideoNMFS_BLLSEAMAP_GF commHL 1 commLL CBT_PR HB Video NMFS-BLL SEAMAP- GF

Discard Fractions Discard fractions from commercial observer data: LL: depending on strata HL: depending on strata Discard fractions calculated from annual recreational landings and discards estimates HB: 0.88 mean annual fraction discarded CBT/PRI: 0.31 mean annual fraction discarded U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 43