John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity... Educational Challenges With It!

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Presentation transcript:

John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity... Educational Challenges With It!

After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating

Petroleum Prices Helps Families In Modest Income Areas

Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 23.6% 100.0

Consumer Confidence, Needed To Help Homes Sales

California Wage & Salary Employment: A Record Level

California Job Gains/Losses ,066,400 Great Recession ,942,491 Up +879, % Up Recovery

Very Rapid Job Growth: 3 Straight Years! p Gained Back 250,502 vs. 142,933 Lost 107,576 More Jobs Will Have Been Created!

Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2014!

IE Unemployment Rate: Closing In on the National Level

The Over-riding Issue: Poverty

Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children Time To Stop Talking & Do Something About This!

Public & Private Education Growing As Budgets Heal % of Job Growth K-12 Median Pay$41, % of Job Growth High Ed Median Pay$60,465

Health Care

Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth % of Job Growth Median Pay $57, Growth of 4,000 Jobs Physicians Other Ambulatory Care Hospitals Residential Care 1,2001,50001, %4.7%0.0%5.6%

Logistics Flow of Goods

Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown

Fulfillment Warehousing

E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

Industrial Construction Four Qtrs. IE Net Absorption: 17.4 million Sq. Ft.

Net Industrial Space Absorption 17.4 million

Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%

Logistics Incredibly Important To Inland Empire’s Economic Health Mary 23% of New Jobs Remember: Every Gold Mine Job Also Funds Another Secondary Tier Job

PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%

Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source

California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 4.0% of U.S. Growth

CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs

Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs % of Job Growth Median Pay $49,138

Construction: Finally Coming Back

Notices of Default At Low Levels (878 in June 2015) Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr st Qtr % to 13.9%

Home Price Trends 60.2% -27.2% 2014,

Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists

Affordability to Median Income Household I. Empire: 47%-53% LA: 31%-69% Orange: 22%-78%

Home Sales Volume Finally Some Upward Motion

Construction Jobs: Finally Growing Median Pay $51, % of Job Growth

High-End & Office Based Jobs Film & CommercialsEngineeringLegal & Accounting Police & FireHealth CareScience & Information

Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers $585,199 $427,095 $484,914 UPLAND EASTVALE $468,269 $465,778 $459,000 CORONA $429,667 TEMECULA $344,095$393,603 $568,700 Claremont $357,037$345,243 Loma Linda

Migration of Educated Workers

Still Relatively Low Share of BA or Higher

Diveristy Challenge

Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Information, Mining Slowly Coming Back Median Pay $55, % of Growth

Office Space Net Absorption 475,000

Office Vacancy Rate 15.8%

Financial Sectors, Slow Comeback Median Pay $48, % of Job Growth

Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency % of Job Growth Median Pay $28,475

Federal, State, Local Government Still Not Recovered Median Pay $57, % of Job Growth

I.E. Well Into Recovery p Gained Back 250,502 vs. 142,933 Lost 107,576 More Jobs Will Have Been Created!