Economic Outlook Benson, AZ

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Lower levels of production  Job losses/rising unemployment  Less income  Lower levels of sales  Stock market declines  Loss of consumer and investor confidence

Cochise College Center for Economic Research PeakTroughDuration (Months) February 1945October November 1948October July 1953May August 1957April April 1960February December 1969November November 1973March January 1980July July 1981November July 1990March March 2001November December 2007?22

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recovery likely in late 2009  Positive signs in recent months  Unemployment will likely continue to rise  Financial crisis will slow recovery and growth  Economic stimulus will have impact  Inflation may become problematic

How Cochise County and Benson are impacted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research BENSON RETAIL SALES TAX REVENUE

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: -4.0%*  2008: -6.5%  2007: -1.3%  Benson (Retail Sales Tax Revenue)  2009: -7.6%*  2008: 0.6%  2007: 38.2% * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: -1.4%*  2008: 0.2%  2007: 0.1%  Benson  2009: 7.9%*  2008: -0.6%  2007: -3.1% * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research ACCOMMODATION SALES GROWTH Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research ACCOMMODATION SALES RECENT ACTIVITY  Cochise County  2009: -5.8%*  2008: 1.0%  2007: 19.7%  Benson  2009: -11.5%*  2008: -7.5%  2007: 17.6% * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  County retail sales at or near bottom—recovery possible in 2009  City level retail sales tax revenue trending downward  County restaurant & bar sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in 2009  City level risks decline  City accommodation recovery possible in 2009  2010 at county level

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

* January-August only; seasonally adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending August 2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending August 2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Continued job losses & rising unemployment  Local area will fare better than, and begin to recover before, state and nation  ADOC estimates for Benson will continue to overstate unemployment

Cochise College Center for Economic Research HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Single Family Residential Building Permits

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: 196 (-26.9%)*  2008: 404 (-14.4%)  2007: 472 (-47.6%)  2006: 900 (-18.8%)  2005: 1,108  Benson  2009: 26*  2008: 64  2007: 25  2006: 104  2005: 5 * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: 589 (-12.9%)*  2008: 1,120 (-20.0%)  2007: 1,400 (-10.6%)  2006: 1,566 (-20.7%)  Benson  2009: -41.7%*  2008: -9.3%  2007: 22.9%  2006: 59.1% * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County  2009: $183,000 (-3.2%)*  2008: $184,000 (-5.6%)  2007: $195,000 (1.3%)  2006: $192,569 (10.7%)  2005: $173,900 (24.3%)  2004: $ 139,900 Benson  2009: $175,000 (8.9%)*  2008: $163,000 (-25.2%)  2007: $218,035 (32.1%)  2006: $165,000 (56.0%)  2005: $105,750 (31.8%)  2004: $80,250 * January-July only

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  New residential construction at or near bottom at county level  Residential construction in Benson will remain well above historical levels  Existing home sales approaching bottom at county level  Home prices should continue to hold or decline modestly

Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recession is likely over  Employment probably won’t improve until 2010  There is still much uncertainty/mixed signals