1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industry GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

GDP The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industry GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2008

Main problems Decrease of the available oil deposits. For the period of excess of an oil extraction over stock gains from surveying has made about 1,3 billion tonns Low oil refining depth (about 70%) High degree of the fixed capital depreciation Expected growth of capital intensity and operation costs High share of taxes in revenues Deficit of available funds for Investment

Share of the oil extraction in gross value added

Role of the oil sector in gross domestic product production

Dynamics of free flow and operation costs Mineral Extraction Tax Export Tariffs Operation costs

The petroleum sector extraction sub-model’s scheme

Link between russian interindustry model and petroleum sector sub-model Petroleum sector submodel Russian Interindusty Model (Currently CONTO) Price Indexes Demand of petroleum products Outputs and exports of oil extraction and oil refinery Tax revenues (mineral extraction tax, export tariffs, profit and value added taxes) Amount of investment in petroleum sector

Estimations of Capital intensity and Operation Costs I In the basic regions of oil extraction (Near-Caspian, republic Komi, an other European part of the Russian Federation, Western Siberia and Ural Mountains, Eastern Siberia, the Far East) all deposits have been allocated on three categories : readily available and developed, mid-available and difficult and/or undiscоvered As a result 18 categories of deposits (3 categories in each of 6 regions), each with the volume of reserves, development cost and operational were received

Estimations of Capital intensity and Operation Costs II Further, we assumed that the most accessible deposits will be developed first of all. Thus we have received dynamics of growth of the capital intensity caused by exhaustion of cheap deposits and gradual transition on more and more expensive deposits. So, capital intensity of development of deposits was settled up on the basis of volume of the extracted petroleum as an accruing result from the beginning of the forecast period

Approximation of Capital Intensity Growth

Approximation of Operation Costs

Forecast dynamics of prices and costs

Investment function I Investment lag, calculated on basis of total amount of extracted oil Total amount of oil extracted from the beginning of forecast period – indicator, used to reflect the oil resources depletion

Investment function II “represent” oil prospecting, licensing,drilling “represent” maintenance and modernization

Investment function III - deflated investment

Investment function IV

Oil Extraction’s Amount and Capital Investment Rate

Forecast estimations of the oil extraction’s dependence from mineral tax size

Oil Extraction and Exports (MET=15)

Oil Extraction and Exports (MET=25)

Oil Extraction and Exports (MET=35)

Oil refinery production (MET=15)

Oil refinery production (MET=25)

Oil refinery production (MET=35)

Structure of oil refinery production

Thank you for attention