THE SEVERE ACCUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME (SARS) EPIDEMIC An Exercise to Estimate its Economic Impact By J. Roberto Jovel

7 Jul 2003RJovel 2 What is SARS? The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a disease of the respiratory system that began in China at the end of 2002 and that expanded very rapidly in Asia, North America and Europe in the first half of 2003

7 Jul 2003RJovel 3 Symptoms of the Disease

7 Jul 2003RJovel 4 The Symptoms of SARS High fever, 39 Degrees Celsius or more Body chills Headache General body pains Generalized disconfort A dry cough may occur after 2 to 7 days, that may result in less oxigen carried by the blood Assisted mechanical breathing is required in 10 to 20 per cent of patients

7 Jul 2003RJovel 5 The Action of SARS Atypical pneumonia

7 Jul 2003RJovel 6 Effects of SARS on Health Unusually high death rates Above 43 per cent for the elderly (over 60 years ) 13 per cent for patients below 60 No known effective medical treatment available at the outset of epidemic Panic among local population and among international community led to suspension of activities and travel to/from infected areas and countries

7 Jul 2003RJovel 7 The Origin of SARS Scientists have found that SARS is caused by an up-to-now unknown Corona Virus The Corona Virus shows a halo when examined under a microscope In the past, the Corona Virus had been associated to respiratory disease in men, and to gastro- intestinal, liver and neurological disease of some animal species.

7 Jul 2003RJovel 8 Propagation of Outbreak

7 Jul 2003RJovel 9 How is SARS Transmitted The main form of transmission is by direct contact with infected persons The majority of cases have occurred from direct contact with infected patients and from manipulating infected material

7 Jul 2003RJovel 10 How SARS is Transmitted.. Other forms of transmission Touching an infected person Touching objects that have been contaminated by infected sneeze droplets from SARS patients, and subsequently touching ones eyes, nose or mouth SARS might also be transmitted through contaminated domestic sewage systems in large housing buildings

7 Jul 2003RJovel 11 Actions Undertaken Treatment of Patients Prevention of Transmission

7 Jul 2003RJovel 12 Medical Treatment The incubation period of SARS is normally from 2 to 7 days, although it may be extended to 10 days The same treatment as for typical pneumonia is recommended Anti-Virus agents such as Oseltamir and Ribavirine, together with steroids, have also been used Other medications have been tested

7 Jul 2003RJovel 13 Isolation of Patients Infected patients are isolated to avoid transmission Persons suspected of being infected are placed under quarantine as well

7 Jul 2003RJovel 14 Preventive Measures Use of face masks Disinfection Measures while traveling

7 Jul 2003RJovel 15 Special Campaigns “Do not spit” campaign in China Prevention campaigns in suburban areas

The Effects of SARS On the Population On the Social Sectors On the Economic Sectors

7 Jul 2003RJovel 17 World Spread of SARS

7 Jul 2003RJovel 18 Number of Cases in Selected countries

7 Jul 2003RJovel 19 Effects on the Population Data through 24 June 2003: –Total number of cases : 8458 –Deaths: 807 WHO declared that the outbreak was controlled in the entire world on 5 July 2003

7 Jul 2003RJovel 20 Effects on the Economy Drop in Tourists´ arrivals Drop in Trade Sales Decrease in Transport Revenues Decrease in the production of goods and services Reduction in overall economic growth

The Case of Singapore Effects of the SARS Epidemic on the Economy

7 Jul 2003RJovel 22 Singapore, in South Asia

7 Jul 2003RJovel 23 Singapore Stats Population: 4.0 million Per Capita Income: US$ 22,750 per year Surface Area: 1,746,000 Sq. Km.

7 Jul 2003RJovel 24 Gross Domestic Product in 2002 Million S $ Per Cent GDP at Current Market Prices155, Good Producing Sectors Manufacturing Construction Utilities Other Sectors 52,509 41,204 8,376 2, Service Producing Sectors Trade Hotels and Restaurants Transport and Communications Financial Services Services to Businesses Other Sectors 98,093 19,884 3,472 17,944 17,450 20,689 18, Owner-Occupied Dwellings 5,6424 Measured Services of Financial Intermediation (9,731)(6) Production Taxes 9,2146

7 Jul 2003RJovel 25 Performance of GDP

7 Jul 2003RJovel 26 Incidence of SARS in Singapore

7 Jul 2003RJovel 27 Effects on the Tourism Sector Substantial drop in the arrival of tourists and businessmen Hotel occupancy and sales in restaurants fell accordingly

7 Jul 2003RJovel 28 The Effect on Tourism Arrival Promedio mensual anticipado: 630,000

7 Jul 2003RJovel 29 Effect on Passenger Air Transport The number of international passengers dropped significantly since March Airplane seat occupancy rates fell accordingly In May, Singapore Airlines reduced its number of flights by 40 per cent

7 Jul 2003RJovel 30 Time Variation of Passenger Air Transport Revenue Ingreso mensual estimado

7 Jul 2003RJovel 31 Effects on Retail Trade Due to absence of tourists and local clients under forced or voluntary quarantine, retail trade sales decreased significantly Gross sales dropped down to 50% in April and to 40% in May

7 Jul 2003RJovel 32 Effect on Retail Trade Sales Ventas mensuales de base

7 Jul 2003RJovel 33 The Exercise to be Undertaken

7 Jul 2003RJovel 34 Effect on Selected Sectors Sectors: Tourism (Hotels and Restaurants) Passenger Air Transport Retail Trade To estimate losses of gross sales or revenues due to the SARS outbreak Use as baseline the expected performance for the year (before the outbreak), and the real data and projections for sector performance (after SARS occurred) Losses must be expressed in monetary terms (I.e. Singapore Dollars or US Dollars)

7 Jul 2003RJovel 35 Effect on Over All Economic Performance Obtain total losses sustained by country, by adding individual sector losses Estimate economic performance of Singapore had not SARS occurred, by: Estimating value added of losses sustained by each sector Adding those figures to the real GDP figure achieved by Singapore in 2003 Estimate economic growth rate that would have been achieved by Singapore had the SARS outbreak not occurred, by comparing to GDP in 2002

7 Jul 2003RJovel 36 Organization for Exercise Inter-Disciplinary Study Groups (4-6 persons) Time Schedule: Distribution of exercise document and explanation (pm, 24 June) Study Group work and consultations with Consultant (24-25 June) Presentation of Study Group results (pm, 25 June) Analysis of results by Consultant (pm, 25 June)

7 Jul 2003RJovel 37