TCS-08 Near Real-Time Satellite Field Program Support and Validation [Jeff Hawkins, Kim Richardson, Tom Lee, Buck Sampson, Steve Miller, Arunas Kuciauskas]

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Presentation transcript:

TCS-08 Near Real-Time Satellite Field Program Support and Validation [Jeff Hawkins, Kim Richardson, Tom Lee, Buck Sampson, Steve Miller, Arunas Kuciauskas] 1, [Chris Velden, Derrick Herndon, Tim Olander, Tony Wimmers] 2 Joe Turk 3, and John Kent 4 Organizations: 1 Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 2 Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, WI 3 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 4 Science Applications International Inc, Monterey, CA Sponsors: Office of Naval Research (ONR) SPAWAR PEO C4I&Space/PMW-120 Tropical Cyclone Conference May 1, 2009

Good central mass Remove doubt Large rain- free eye Rainband structure

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System warning graphic Latest 1-km Visible/IR imagery (GEO/LEO) 30 minute MTSAT refresh with AVHRR/OLS as available Vis/IR imagery suite Scatterometer & CloudSat Storm Basins & Names Microwave imager/sounder product suite TCS-08 Field Program NRL Satellite Page

Cloud and water vapor-tracked winds: TCS-08/TPARC Velden/Stettner CIMSS MTSAT-1R hourly winds now a routinely available to JTWC. The vectors are disseminated to NRL-MRY for NOGAPS model assimilation.

MTSAT Rapid Scan Wind Vectors NOGAPS 4DVAR assimilation and model forecast impact studies underway Future plans for COAMPS-TC assimilation experiments 4 Minute 30 Minute 15 Minute

TCS-08 Satellite Cal/Val WC-130J Penetrations: TC Intensity (MSLP & Max Winds): Time Line AugustSeptember Single Double Triple 13W Nuri 03 Center Fixes 15 W Sinlaku 11 Center Fixes 19 W Jangmi 8 Center Fixes

NRL P-3 flight track WC-130J flight track Planned WC-130 flight track Screen capture of real- time display during aircraft operations 18 August 2008 Area of ELDORA radar coverage in the next slide TCS-08 3rd flight into the Pre-TY Nuri (13W) [Harr]

TCS-08 Satellite Cal-Val 3 Engines: One WC-130J Nuri penetration – then home (Guam)

TCS-08 Satellite Cal-Val AMSU-A/B overpasses: Aug 17-18, 2008 WC-130J Vortex Penetration: 13W Nuri Aug. 17, Z NOAA Z NOAA Z MetOp-A 0111Z NOAA Z

Analysis of Sat-Based TC Intensity Estimation in the WNP WC-130J storm center fixes within +/- ~4 hours of corresponding AMSU overpasses Storm yyyymmddhhmm lat lonmslp msw amsu_pass(ddhhmm) 13W N133.62E W N127.25E W N125.25E W N124.33E W N124.37E W N124.75E W N123.22E W N130.24E W N135.09E W N139.22E W N134.18E W N129.65E W N129.35E W N124.78E TCS-08 satellite validation cases were limited!

Analysis of Sat-Based TC Intensity Estimation in the WNP N=13 ‘Blind’ Dvorak Consensus Oper Dvorak Consensus (w/Koba) ADT w/MW CIMSS AMSU SATCON Bias Abs Error RMSE Positive Bias indicates method estimates are too strong Comparison of All Satellite-based Estimates – Vmax (Kts)

Raindrops Ice Crystals Hail/Graupel Effective Level of hydrometeors Freezing level High Level Invests (30,000’) 1,500’30,000’ 10,000’ Dropsonde

TCS-08 Shear Impacts on TCs High altitude (30,000’) dropsondes enable shear studies Courtesy: Black 25W First time ever

28 Sept, 0006 Eyewall open west, NW quad rainbands disappear 27 Sept, 2132 Eyewall, bands decay STY Jangmi Rapid Structure Change Time OHC Gradient Cold, Shallow Warm, Deep 27 Sept, 1134 Eyewall shrinks, asymmetric band structure forms 27 Sept, 0445 Concentric Eyewalls: Peak Intensity Black

WC-130J Drifting Buoy Deployment

TCS08 AXBT Locations Ko, NRL Stennis TCS-08 Ocean Heat Content: Preview of ITOP2010 AXBT vs NRL Ocean Model Initial Conditions Model underpredicts high heat content Ocean Heat Content (OHC)

QSCAT- and ASCAT-only Data over-estimates size and under-estimates intensity WC-130J SFMR data defines more accurate TC intensity and size

DMSP SSM/I TRMM TMI AMSR-E WINDSAT DMSP SSMIS FY-3 MWRI Megha Tropiques MADRAS GCOM AMSR2/3 GPM-Core GMI NPOESS MIS YEAR Primary mission Projected extended mission April 2009 Hawkins-Hou-Ferraro Passive Microwave Imager Missions Launches ? Future 16 ? ? ?

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Microwave (ADT-MW) Infrared Image 09 Sept 2008 /17:30UTC No Eye Apparent in IR Imagery “Dvorak” Enhancement 09 Sept 2008 /17:30UTC Microwave Image: AMSR-E 09 Sept 2008 /17:08:28UTC Eye Region Depicted In MW Imagery

ADT-MW Module Augments ADT by monitoring eyewall structure via microwave imagery during eye formation stages obscured by upper clouds (CDO) Uses T B discriminators to analyze TC core structure and output “scores” related to TC intensity Uses T B discriminators to analyze TC core structure and output “scores” related to TC intensity Warmest eye pixel Eyewall temperatures Hurricane Dolly, 23 July UTC SSM/I 85GHz brightness temperatures (T B ) Scheme estimates storms: Scheme estimates storms: - Greater than 65 knots - Greater than 65 knots - Greater than 85 knots - Greater than 85 knots Scores exceeding thresholds in these intensity bins are passed to ADT with Current Intensity (CI) values which override ADT IR-based estimates Scores exceeding thresholds in these intensity bins are passed to ADT with Current Intensity (CI) values which override ADT IR-based estimates 6.4 Demo Transition in 2009 season 6.4 Demo Transition in 2009 season

ADT-MW Example ADT (Blue –plateaus during CDO) ADT-MW (Red – sees eyewall development)